793
FXUS61 KPBZ 310534 AAB
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
134 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE TODAY. A BRIEF BIT OF DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY. RAIN RETURNS BY MIDWEEK AS DO WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS OVERNIGHT
- MORE SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES.
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A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED AS IT MOVED
EASTWARD. THE LINE ENCOUNTERED AN ATMOSPHERE WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING SHEAR. THERE ARE STILL SOME ISOLATED
HEAVER SHOWERS, BUT MOST OF THE RAIN IS JUST LIGHT AND STEADY.
WHATS LEFT OF THE LINE IS BEING SUSTAINED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT IS RUSHING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HAVE UPDATED OVERNIGHT POPS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
HIRES MODEL DATA. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING, FINALLY CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS WAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS, SO
THERE IS NOT MUCH TO GIVE IT A PUSH UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED
AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN OHIO LATE IN THE DAY. STILL EXPECT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY, WITH THE ACTIVITY
GENERALLY SCATTERED AND LIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL OCCUR BEFORE FROPA AND WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COOL-DOWN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS SHOWERS
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DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN TUESDAY. BOTH ARE RATHER
SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM CLIMBS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A WARM FRONT BACK THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
USHERS IN THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY
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THERE LOOKS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR A BOUNDARY TO STALL ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY BEGINNING LATE-WEEK AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND ANY FURTHER WOBBLING OF THIS STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO THE EXPECTED IMPACTS BUT IT
LOOKS LIKELY THAT SOMEWHERE IN THE OH VALLEY IS IN FOR ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WATER IMPACTS. IT REMAINS
VERY EARLY TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THESE IMPACTS WILL BE GREATEST
BUT CLUSTERED ANALYSIS. LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES YIELD SEVERAL DAYS
WHERE THE CHANCE TO SEE >1 INCH OF RAINFALL IN 24HRS IS ABOVE
30% IN OUR REGION. THERE IS ALSO A NOTED 50% CHANCE OF SOME
RIVERS REACHING 'ACTION' STAGE, INCLUDING DOWNTOWN PITTSBURGH.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FIRST AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL
PORTS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING TEMPO
RESTRICTIONS TO VIS/CIGS. MVFR CIGS ARE GENERALLY FAVORED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS LOOK
TO BE NON-RESTRICTIVE.
WIND GUSTS SHOULD STRENGTHEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE BACKING RAPIDLY
ONCE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES, SO A SWITCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
VFR RETURNS TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22/88/AK
LONG TERM...88/AK
AVIATION...22/MLB
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