439
FXUS61 KPBZ 311207
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
807 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE TODAY. A BRIEF BIT OF DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY. RAIN RETURNS BY MIDWEEK AS DO WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES.
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MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL OHIO WITH SOME SHOWERS ALONG IT. LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION IS DROPPING TEMPERATURES QUICKLY IN ITS WAKE, AND AT
LEAST FOR OUR EASTERN OHIO COUNTIES, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
REACHED NOT LONG AFTER SUNRISE WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO STEEPENING WITH THE
CAA WHICH, IN TANDEM WITH TIGHTER PACKING OF THE ISOBARS, IS
RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS TO 20-30
MPH. THAT'LL BE THE THEME OF THE DAY TODAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THAT WILL BE EAST OF PITTSBURGH
WHERE LONGER RESIDENCE TIME OF WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL WORK TO GENERATE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY;
THE HREF PROBS OF >100 J/KG SBCAPE PEAKS AROUND 70% TOWARD THE
RIDGES. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND A LOWERING INVERSION LIKELY
CUTTING OFF ANY MORE ROBUST UPDRAFT BELOW THE HAIL GROWTH LAYER.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING, FINALLY CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW THE SINKING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL HOLD FIRM INTO
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH VALUES DIPPING BELOW FREEZING NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH AND INTO THE MID 30S SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COOL-DOWN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS SHOWERS
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DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN TUESDAY. BOTH ARE RATHER
SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM CLIMBS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A WARM FRONT BACK THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
USHERS IN THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY
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THERE LOOKS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR A BOUNDARY TO STALL ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY BEGINNING LATE-WEEK AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND ANY FURTHER WOBBLING OF THIS STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO THE EXPECTED IMPACTS BUT IT
LOOKS LIKELY THAT SOMEWHERE IN THE OH VALLEY IS IN FOR ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WATER IMPACTS. IT REMAINS
VERY EARLY TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THESE IMPACTS WILL BE GREATEST
BUT CLUSTERED ANALYSIS. LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES YIELD SEVERAL DAYS
WHERE THE CHANCE TO SEE >1 INCH OF RAINFALL IN 24HRS IS ABOVE
30% IN OUR REGION. THERE IS ALSO A NOTED 50% CHANCE OF SOME
RIVERS REACHING 'ACTION' STAGE, INCLUDING DOWNTOWN PITTSBURGH.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING, AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD, UNDER LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND SHIFT WIND OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST. GUSTS SHOULD STRENGTHEN DURING THE MORNING
HOURS UP TO 30 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR
LBE/MGW. THEY SHOULD MOSTLY BE NON-RESTRICTIVE IN TERMS OF VIS.
CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF BOUNCE TO HIGH-END IFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HOVER AROUND THE 1KFT MARK BASED
ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
REINFORCE CLOUD COVERAGE BENEATH A SINKING INVERSION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. FKL/DUJ ARE MORE LIKELY TO GO IFR AFTER
23Z OR SO WITH 50-70% PROBABILITIES FILTERING IN WITH INCREASED
LAKE MOISTURE. AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN TOWARD DAYBREAK
TUESDAY, RESTRICTION PROBABILITIES DIMINISH.
OUTLOOK...
VFR RETURNS TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...22/MLB
NEAR TERM...MLB
SHORT TERM...22/88/AK
LONG TERM...88/AK
AVIATION...22/MLB
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