256
FXUS61 KPBZ 200324
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1124 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
MAINLY DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BEHIND AND
EXITING COLD FRONT. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH, AND HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- MAINLY DRY AND COOLER TONIGHT
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UPDATE...
FURTHER REDUCED POPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE REGION THIS EVENING, WHICH WAS ACROSS SW PA INTO SE OH. ALSO
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, AND GRIDDED GFS LAMP DATA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED HAIL WAS REPORTED WITH STORMS THAT
MOVED ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF PIT THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WERE
EXITING AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL HAS ALSO ENDED WITH THE
LAST OF THE STORMS EXITING.
DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW. LOWS WILL BE
COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT, THOUGH STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY CONDITIONS LATE MORNING SUNDAY THROUGH LATE EVENING
- WARM FRONT WILL RETURN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
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DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING
RETURNS. ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WITH DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY RANGING BETWEEN 300J/KG TO 700J/KG AND
30-40KTS OF SHEAR, THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS THAT PRODUCE
HAIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.
AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES MONDAY EVENING, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY COULD CREATE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE LATE
EVENING. THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES DEPENDENT ON SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT AND
RIDGE LOCATION
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THERE REMAINS STRONG AGREEMENT ON LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE MODELS ON
BRIEF RIDGING WITHIN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TUESDAY THAT WILL PROVIDE
DRY WEATHER AND MAINTAIN THE RECENT TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE.
THOSE TRENDS MAY CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS THE OVERALL 500MB PATTERN
IS LIKELY TO EXHIBIT LITTLE CHANGE, BUT EMBEDDED 500MB SHORTWAVES
AND MOVEMENT WITHIN THE 850-700MB LEVEL COULD OFFER LOW
PROBABILITY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHWEST PA. A FEW GLOBAL
MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR UPPER MIDWEST CONVECTION DECAYING
AS IT REACHES THIS AREA DUE TO WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT. MENTION
OF RAIN WILL REMAIN JUST IN THIS TEXT FOR NOW.
THE LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PERIOD WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF A NOTABLE RIDGE AXIS AND WHERE THE
CORRESPONDING TROUGH SITS. A CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE AXIS MAY OFFER
A DRIER PERIOD (OUTSIDE OF A TRANSITION PRECIPITATION DAY) WITH
TEMPERATURE TRENDING DOWN TOWARD OR POTENTIALLY EVEN BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE. A SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE MAY OFFER MORE
PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT OVER THE
RIDGE TOP, BUT A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR MAINTAINING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE.
AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CREEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END BY 02Z
IN MOST CASES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT OVERALL,
EXPECTED TO SEE SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH DAWN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH
LINGERING LOW VFR CLOUD COVER.
OUTLOOK...
A PASSING WARM FRONT EARLY MONDAY MAY CREATE ISOLATED
RESTRICTIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...HEFFERAN
LONG TERM...FRAZIER
AVIATION...CL/SHALLENBERGER
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