014
FXUS61 KPBZ 221420
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1020 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DRY.
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS RETURNS ON FRIDAY. A BRIEF COOL DOWN TODAY,
THEN WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT
- DRY AND COOLER WITH DECREASING CLOUDS TODAY.
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MID-MORNING UPDATE: VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE WEST IS WORKING TO ERODE
MOST OF OUR STRATUS OBSERVED OVERNIGHT. IN PLACES THAT HAVE
CLEARED OUT, CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED AND
SOME CU DEVELOPMENT CAN ALREADY BE SEEN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW:
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER OHIO THIS MORNING AND THEN SLOWLY
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COOLER AIR LEFT BEHIND THE
NIGHTTIME COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED NORTHEASTWARD. WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION, CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE AND MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD SEE SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY, BUT
STILL A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY
- WARMING TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
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500MB HEIGHTS RISE AGAIN SUBTLY ACROSS OUR AREA AS A DISJOINTED
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL KICK OUR TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS NON-PHASED UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO
SLIDE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. NBM PROBABILITIES OF HIGH TEMPERATURE
>80 DEGREES ARE OVER 70% ON THURSDAY FOR I-70 ON SOUTH AND
BETWEEN 50-70% FOR MUCH OF PITTSBURGH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO SATURDAY
- DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEKEND
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INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A TROUGH
RETURNS SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH
AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
WITH SHOWERS WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST.
HEIGHTS RISE SUNDAY AHEAD OF A CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE THAT SHOULD
RETURN DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
THIS BUILDING RIDGE IS ALSO SUPPOSED TO BRING THE RETURN OF ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL ERODE
LINGERING LOW VFR TO MVFR STRATOCU THROUGH 16Z THIS MORNING.
DIURNAL HEATING PLUS THE RESIDUAL SURFACE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT
IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND THAT OCCASIONALLY GUSTS BETWEEN
15-20KTS BEFORE CALMING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL SUPPORT GENERAL VFR
THROUGH THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN MAY RETURN FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22/AK
SHORT TERM...22/AK
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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