951
FXUS61 KPBZ 241149
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
749 AM EDT THU APR 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND VERY WARM TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND VERY WARM TODAY
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RISING HEIGHTS AND CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE A
DRY AND VERY WARM DAY. THE WARM ADVECTION AND FULL SUN WILL PUSH
HIGHS SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASES FRIDAY
- SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING
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AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS TODAY. ENSEMBLES HAVE COME TOGETHER ON PRIOR
PREDICTIONS FOR A WEAKER WAVE IMPINGING UPON THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD BE ADVANCING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA, AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN WARM
ADVECTION, WILL RETURN SHOWER CHANCES TO THE REGION BEGINNING
TONIGHT-EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RISE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AND PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL TOTALS LARGELY
BETWEEN 0.25-0.75 INCHES.
ENSEMBLES PROG THE COLD FRONT AS BEING JUST EAST OF OUR CWA
BORDERS AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
COOLER, AND POSSIBLY WINDY, WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- TROUGH SPEED WILL DETERMINE TIMING OF RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS
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CLUSTERED ENSEMBLES INDICATE A STRONG SIGNAL FOR A WEAKER AND
FASTER TROUGH DEPARTURE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SWITCHING SIGNS
SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SLOWS NEAR THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.
THIS ONCE AGAIN LEAVES THE DEGREE TO WHICH HEIGHTS RISE ON
SUNDAY SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT EVEN WITH MINOR RISES IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT DRY WEATHER RETURNS AND TEMPERATURES WARM. HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD BUT
CLUSTERED ENSEMBLES DISAGREE ON JUST HOW MUCH AS THEY CONTINUE
TO SHOW A STUBBORN TROUGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A PREDOMINANT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW. CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
DEVELOPING IN THE AREA DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING, THOUGH COVERAGE WOULD BE FAR TOO SPARSE TO
WARRANT A MENTION AT ANY SPECIFIC SITE (THOUGH BEST CHANCE
MIGHT BE AROUND ZZV).
BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN AFTER 06Z FRIDAY
WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.
MVFR CEILINGS COULD CREEP IN AT ZZV BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD OFF ELSEWHERE UNTIL NEAR OR
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH RESTRICTIONS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR AND DRY
WEATHER DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY UNDER DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...22/AK
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22/AK
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...CERMAK/RACKLEY
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