809
FXUS61 KPBZ 242139
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
539 PM EDT THU APR 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT PAVE THE WAY FOR INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN OH TONIGHT.
- LOWS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
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WITH ACHIEVEMENT OF CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON, A
CUMULUS FIELD STILL DOTS THE REGION THIS EVENING. CONVECTION
HAS MANAGED TO FIRE JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST WHERE
SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES EVEN THOUGH THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF IT AT FIRST GLANCE. REPEATED
UPDRAFT ATTEMPTS ARE LIKELY WET-BULBING THE MID-LEVELS WHERE A
LOT OF DRY AIR RESIDES AND ALLOWING FOR GROWTH OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS, BUT STILL LOW EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE CAPPING THE
VERTICAL EXTENT. WITH WEAK STORM-RELATIVE FLOW, THEY HAVE
MOSTLY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT, AND SOME OF THIS OUTFLOW MAY
WORK INTO OUR EASTERN OHIO COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING AND
ATTEMPT TO SPARK OFF SOME MORE DEVELOPMENT IN OUR REGION. CAMS
DO HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY, THOUGH EXPECT THAT WITH THE EVEN
DRIER ENVIRONMENT LOCALLY, THEY'LL MOST LIKELY BRING SOME
LOCALLY GUSTY WIND AND A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN AT THE WORST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL COME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD WHILE A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED
OVER THE AREA, AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN WARM ADVECTION, WILL
RETURN SHOWER CHANCES TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASES FRIDAY
- SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING
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AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS TODAY. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED OVER THE AREA, AND
INCREASING MOISTURE IN WARM ADVECTION, WILL RETURN SHOWER
CHANCES TO THE REGION BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RISE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AMID
WARM ADVECTION AND PEAK OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSING FRONT. A
LACK OF STRONG SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT LEAD TO A MUDDY
PICTURE OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A LOW THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL TOTALS
LARGELY BETWEEN 0.25-0.75 INCHES.
ENSEMBLES PROG THE COLD FRONT AS BEING NEAR/EAST OF OUR CWA
BORDERS AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY,
COOLER, AND POSSIBLY BREEZY, WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- TROUGH SPEED WILL DETERMINE TIMING OF RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS
- ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDENT ON TROUGH
SPEED
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THE LONGWAVE TROUGH FINALLY PHASES WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS THE
WAVE PACKET EXITS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CLUSTERED ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIGNAL FOR A QUICKER AND WEAKER TROUGH
EXITING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE
INDICATION OF A SLIGHTLY QUICKER EXIT IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD.
CLUSTERED ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE PAINTING A COHESIVE
PICTURE OF EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY OUR STUBBORN TROUGH KICKS
EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WITH SEVERAL CLUSTERS
STILL SHOWING THE TROUGH CAMPED OUT SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CANADA BY
TUESDAY. MODELING CONTINUES TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ACTIVE
WEATHER TIED TO A NEW UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL CONUS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TIMING OF THIS WILL
GREATLY DEPEND ON THE AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF THE ENTIRE WAVE
PACKET WHICH LARGELY REMAINS IN QUESTION.
AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A COUPLE WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
EVENING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW AND COVERAGE TOO
SPARSE TO WARRANT A MENTION AT ANY SPECIFIC SITE (THOUGH BEST
CHANCE CONTINUE TO FOCUS IN EASTER OHIO, AROUND ZZV).
BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN AFTER 06Z FRIDAY
WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. A
GREATER COVERAGE IN SHOWERS OVERSPREADS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO LOW-END VFR OR POSSIBLY DIPPING TO
MVFR AT ZZV AND BVI BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH RESTRICTIONS ACCOMPANY THE
PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR AND DRY WEATHER DEVELOPING BY
SUNDAY UNDER DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...22/AK
NEAR TERM...MLB/AK
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...CERMAK
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