111
FXUS61 KPBZ 250757
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
357 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION TODAY,
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, BEFORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
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AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL
PROVIDE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS WAVE WILL RIDE
ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHERN NY.
A STRONGER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION AS EVENING
APPROACHES AND IT WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT EASTWARD. THE
FRONT SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY
BEFORE SUNSET. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE THE RISK FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THURSDAY, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING
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ENSEMBLES PROG THE COLD FRONT AS BEING EAST OF OUR CWA BORDER
AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
HEIGHT RISES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE A COOL AND
DRY DAY ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- TROUGH SPEED WILL DETERMINE TIMING OF RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS
- ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDENT ON TROUGH
SPEED
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THE LONGWAVE TROUGH FINALLY PHASES WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS THE
WAVE PACKET EXITS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CLUSTERED ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIGNAL FOR A QUICKER AND WEAKER TROUGH
EXITING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD.
CLUSTERED ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE PAINTING A COHESIVE
PICTURE OF EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY OUR STUBBORN TROUGH KICKS
EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WITH SEVERAL CLUSTERS
STILL SHOWING THE TROUGH CAMPED OUT SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CANADA BY
TUESDAY. MODELING CONTINUES TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ACTIVE
WEATHER TIED TO A NEW UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL CONUS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TIMING OF THIS WILL
GREATLY DEPEND ON THE AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF THE ENTIRE WAVE
PACKET WHICH LARGELY REMAINS IN QUESTION.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE. WHILE
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALREADY CROSSING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW,
DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS KEPT MUCH OF THIS FROM FALLING TO THE
GROUND SO FAR. CLOUDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE
MORNING, WITH PATCHY MVFR EXPECTED AFTER 12Z.
PROBABILITY OF FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
AFTER AROUND 20Z AHEAD OF A CROSSING COLD FRONT. MVFR TO IFR
VIS AND CIGS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY WITH THIS
CELLULAR/CLUSTERED CONVECTION. RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY AS SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA. HOWEVER,
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN IFR/MVFR CIGS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
INCREASES BETWEEN 16Z TO 19Z FRIDAY, AHEAD OF A
PASSING COLD FRONT. AGAIN, PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LIKELY CREATE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS OF MVFR TO IFR VIS AND MVFR
CIGS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE CELLULAR OR SMALL CLUSTER
OPPOSED TO A PASSING LINE OF STORMS, THEREFORE EXPECT STORM
ACTIVITY REMAIN ELEVATED FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME, PASSED 00Z
SATURDAY.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES BETWEEN 00Z TO 06Z
SATURDAY WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. REMNANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP CIGS TO
IFR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE BETWEEN 08Z TO 14Z SUNDAY WITH LOW-LEVEL
DRY AIR ADVANCING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
GRADUAL CIG IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST. VFR
CONFIDENTLY RETURNS FOR ALL BY EARLY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOW
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL. THE NEXT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION CHANCE
APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AND FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22/AK
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...RACKLEY
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