962
FXUS61 KPBZ 251430
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1030 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION TODAY,
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, BEFORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
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MID-MORNING UPDATE: OUR FIRST UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO CROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. RAINFALL
TOTALS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT SO FAR, LARGELY UNDER A TENTH
OF AN INCH. HEIGHTS SUBTLY RISE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON
AFTER THE FIRST WAVE PASSES AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
ABATE SOME. DURING THIS TIME FRAME THERE COULD BE THE CHANCE TO
HEAT THE SFC AND CREATE SOME INSTABILITY, LEADING TO A MORE
CONVECTIVE PICTURE AS SHOWERS RETURN WITH OUR SECOND UPPER WAVE
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL AND A MORE CONVECTIVE EVENING PERIOD
COULD LEAD TO MORE CONCERNS FOR HEAVY RAIN THAN SEVERE WEATHER.
OUR MORNING SOUNDING ALREADY SHOWED PWATS NEAR THE 90TH
PERCENTILE AND STORM MOTION VECTORS LOOK TO BE RATHER SLOW THAT
COULD SETUP POWER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT SLOWLY TRAIN ACROSS
SIMILAR AREAS BOOSTING LOCALIZED RAIN TOTALS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW:
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL
PROVIDE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS WAVE WILL RIDE
ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHERN NY.
A STRONGER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION AS EVENING
APPROACHES AND IT WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT EASTWARD. THE
FRONT SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY
BEFORE SUNSET. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE THE RISK FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THURSDAY, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING
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ENSEMBLES PROG THE COLD FRONT AS BEING EAST OF OUR CWA BORDER
AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD END
SATURDAY MORNING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY DUE TO THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
HEIGHT RISES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE A COOL AND
DRY DAY ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- TROUGH SPEED WILL DETERMINE TIMING OF RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS
- ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK BUT DEPENDENT ON TROUGH
SPEED
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THE LONGWAVE TROUGH FINALLY PHASES WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS THE
WAVE PACKET EXITS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CLUSTERED ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIGNAL FOR A QUICKER AND WEAKER TROUGH
EXITING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD.
CLUSTERED ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE PAINTING A COHESIVE
PICTURE OF EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY OUR STUBBORN TROUGH KICKS
EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WITH SEVERAL CLUSTERS
STILL SHOWING THE TROUGH CAMPED OUT SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CANADA BY
TUESDAY. MODELING CONTINUES TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ACTIVE
WEATHER TIED TO A NEW UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL CONUS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE TIMING OF THIS WILL
GREATLY DEPEND ON THE AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF THE ENTIRE WAVE
PACKET WHICH LARGELY REMAINS IN QUESTION.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. COVERAGE THEN INCREASES THIS EVENING WITH A CROSSING
SHORTWAVE WITH A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MVFR
RESTRICTIONS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING, AND THEN
EVENTUALLY IFR OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS IFR CIG
PROBABILITIES RANGING FROM 80 TO 100% BY SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONFIDENTLY RETURNS SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOW RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL. THE NEXT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION CHANCE APPEARS TO BE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OUTLOOK...
GRADUAL CIG IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST. VFR
CONFIDENTLY RETURNS FOR ALL BY EARLY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOW
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL. THE NEXT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION CHANCE
APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AND FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22/AK
SHORT TERM...22/AK
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...88
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