331
FXUS61 KPBZ 260519
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
119 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HEAVY RAIN WILL WANE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HEAVY RAIN HAS MOSTLY ENDED WITH LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH
EARLY MORNING
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE-AVERAGE THROUGH DAWN
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POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT THE BACK
EDGE OF THESE SHOWERS IS CROSSING EASTERN OHIO AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, SO THE END IS IN SIGHT. PRIMARY LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS HAVE BEEN ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80, WITH SOME ROAD
CLOSURES IN PROGRESS. RAINFALL INTENSITY HAS GENERALLY LESSENED
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER IN, SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY AS
RAIN BEGINS TO EXIT THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE WILL TREND ABOVE AVERAGE WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR, AND MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO AHEAD OF
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOLER BUT DRY FOR THE WEEKEND
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SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS OUR SECOND UPPER WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT CLEAR THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE
REGION IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE TRIMMED AND FALL JUST A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL, POTENTIALLY OUR FIRST BELOW AVERAGE HIGH SINCE APRIL
17TH. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY DUE TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN AND CONTINUES DRY WEATHER SUNDAY.
500MB HEIGHTS FINALLY BEGIN TO RISE AS THE UPPER TROUGH KICKS
EASTWARD AND RIDGING BEGINS TO SLIDE IN FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS.
DESPITE THESE HEIGHT RISES, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
RISE MUCH AND WE COULD END UP WITH TWO DAYS IN A ROW OF BELOW
AVERAGE HIGHS. LARGELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT
LIKELY LEAD TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A CHILLY START TO
OUR NEXT WORK WEEK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WEEK
- ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLE MIDWEEK BUT DEPENDENT ON TROUGH SPEED
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CLUSTERED ENSEMBLES STILL DISAGREE ON EXACTLY HOW EAGER THAT
DEPARTING TROUGH IS TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. THERE IS A
SLIGHT SIGNAL TODAY FOR A POSSIBLY FASTER DEPARTURE LEADING TO AN
EARLIER ONSET OF RIDGING BUT THE EURO IS THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION.
DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY ON SPEED, IT REMAINS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT
HEIGHTS RISE ON MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
CLUSTERED ENSEMBLES SHUNT THE RIDGE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY, RAISING
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN, AS AN UPPER WAVE TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS WAVE BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE THREATS NEXT WEEK BUT THE PICTURE OF ITS ARRIVAL IS FAR FROM
CLEAR. CLUSTERED ENSEMBLES STILL HAVE THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IN THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION BY TUESDAY. FROM THERE, THEY PAINT A DISJOINTED
PICTURE OF THE WAVE BECOMING UNPHASED, WITH THE BASE OUT WEST AND
REMAINDER RIDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND FLATTENING THE EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE. THE PICTURE BECOMES EVEN MUDDIER BY WEDNESDAY, WITH
SIGNALS FOR A POSSIBLY WEAKER AND SLOWER WAVE BECOMING EQUALLY AS
LIKELY.
AS IT STANDS NOW IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT POPS WILL RETURN TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THIS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONG-RANGE FORECAST
LARGELY REMAIN CLOUDED BY THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMPLITUDE, SPEED
AND EVOLUTION OF THE WAVE PACKET.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHOWERS, AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS, WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE, AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, TRACK ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE THIS
EVENING TO MAINTAIN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FOR FKL, DUJ,
AND LBE, ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE EVENING, WITH THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. DETERIORATION TO IFR
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE
SHOWERS.
THE LOW/COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING, THOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD SUPPORT IFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING. MIXING AND SOME DRY ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT CIGS BACK
TO MVFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING FOR MOST AIRPORTS, THOUGH A
CROSSING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD MAINTAIN THE
MVFR CIGS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
RESTRICTIONS, AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, RETURN TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. VFR
RETURNS WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RACKLEY
NEAR TERM...HEFFERAN/RACKLEY
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...WM
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