098
FXUS61 KPBZ 261541
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1141 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A PASSING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MID-WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT
- BELOW-AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
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GOES-16 SATELLITE DEPICTS FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE HEATING. WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW STILL ANGLED FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST, DRY AND QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT DAY.
WITH LITTLE TO NO WARM ADVECTION NOTED ALOFT, AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW-AVERAGE.
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A PASSING DISTURBANCE
NOTED IN THE SHORT TERM, WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONABLE DUE TO WEAK RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WET WEATHER RETURNS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
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SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STARTS TO PHASE WITH
DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER MINNESOTA AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
UPPER LOW THEN MOVES INTO WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TUESDAY INTO INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT AND MICHIGAN ON
WEDNESDAY.
850-700 MB WARM ADVECTION PUSHES INTO OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
RAIN. AIRMASS MAY GET UNSTABLE ENOUGH BY WEDNESDAY TO ALLOW FOR
SOME THUNDER BUT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL
IS RATHER LOW.
NBM 25TH PERCENTILE PQPF IS 0.50-1.00" WITH 75TH PERCENTILE OF
1.00-2.00". HOWEVER, HOURLY RATES DON'T APPEAR TO BE MUCH MORE
THAN 0.10 TO 0.25" SO IMPACTS FROM RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE
MINIMAL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- TEMPERATURE UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND
- READINGS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS OVERALL
- DAILY SHOWER CHANCES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
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ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT THAT UPPER
LOW WILL OPEN UP AS A TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND MOVE FROM MICHIGAN
TO SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. A RATHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH THEN IS SHOWN TO DIG SOUTH
ACROSS ONTARIO AND HEAD FOR GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.
THIS TROUGH THEN SWINGS EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND
THEN HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY DURING
THE DIURNAL CYCLE WHEN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. WHILE THE MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL, UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEPTH
OF THE UPPER TROUGH LEADS TO RATHER HIGH SPREADS OF POTENTIAL
OUTCOMES ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. NBM 10TH PERCENTILE MAXT ARE
IN THE 60S, WHILE 90TH PERCENTILE ARE IN THE 80S.
BECAUSE HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THE PLAINS AND HEAT ALSO
BUILDING, THAT WARM AIR WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL NEXT WEEK. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNDER
THE UPPER TROUGH WITH DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PREVENTING
TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING MUCH.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS SETTLED IN THIS MORNING NORTH OF PITTSBURGH
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT HAS REMAINED OUTSIDE OF
FKL/DUJ WITH VFR HOLDING ON. HARD TO SEE MUCH EXPANSION AT THIS
POINT WITH SUNRISE ALREADY IN OUR PAST AND EXPECT THAT REMAINING FOG
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING.
VFR EXPECTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY. CLEARING MID-DECKS
WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TODAY, INCREASING IN
COVERAGE SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. A BIT BETTER
MOISTURE TO THE NORTH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU TO
DOT THE SKY AROUND FKL/DUJ. WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST.
OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING UP THE OHIO VALLEY EVENTUALLY BRINGS RAIN CHANCES AND
RESTRICTIONS BACK TO THE LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HEFFERAN
NEAR TERM...HEFFERAN
SHORT TERM...CRAVEN
LONG TERM...CRAVEN
AVIATION...MLB/MILCAREK
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