805
FXUS61 KPBZ 280029
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
829 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES RETURN
FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST UNTIL THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING.
- GUSTY CONDITIONS WITH DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE RIDGES.
- SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURE PERSISTS.
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EVENING UPDATE: THE INITIAL WAVE OF RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF I-80. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM PIT SHOWS A
VASTLY MORE MOIST PROFILE THAN ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM 21Z. RAINFALL
TOTALS NORTH OF I-70 AT THIS TIME ARE LARGELY BELOW 0.10 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS TO THE SOUTH OF I-70 RAMP UP FROM 0.25 INCHES NEAR
THE INTERSTATE TO AROUND 0.50 INCHES IN THE RIDGES OF WV.
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WITH THIS UPDATE, MAINLY TO TRIM POPS NEAR THE I-
80 CORRIDOR UNTIL CLOSER TO 09Z AS PRIOR CAMS HAD SUGGESTED.
CONTINUED GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE PA RIDGES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 19Z NBM WANTED TO PLASTER THUNDER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT BUT THIS WAS REMOVED
WITH A WHOLESALE LACK OF INSTABILITY. PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW:
LATEST CAMS KEEP MOST RAIN SOUTH OF I-80 THROUGH AROUND 09Z, WHEN A
SECOND SURGE BEGINS TO MORE RAPIDLY SPREAD NORTHWARDS AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH. THE MOISTURE SURGE REMAINS NOTABLE AS PWAT
VALUES RISE NEAR THE 75TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE, WHICH INCREASES
FLOODING RISKS. HOWEVER, MINIMAL INSTABILITY PLUS WEAK DRY
DOWNSLOPING AND LIMITED SURFACE LIFT WILL PRECLUDE RISKS FOR
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING WHILE THE LACK OF OVERLY SATURATED GROUNDS
SHOULD FURTHER MITIGATE RISKS. CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT FOR >1"
EXCEED 50% ONLY IN PRESTON AND TUCKER COUNTIES, WEST VIRGINIA.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RAMP UP THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE RIDGES WILL LEAD TO NEAR-ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
ACROSS THE RIDGES AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM. HREF PROBABILITIES OF
>45MPH GUSTS EXCEED 80% IN A FEW POCKETS OF WESTMORELAND COUNTY.
WITH OVERCAST SKIES AND INCOMING RAINFALL, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RUN A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW
AVERAGE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FAVORED THURSDAY.
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ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ABOUT THE LARGE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT THE PERSISTENCE OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY LIFT THE WARM FRONT FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO ALLOW BRIEF HEATING BEFORE THE NOMINAL COLD FRONT
ARRIVES; IF SO, A LINE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE
I-70 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH MAY DEVELOP BUT IS UNLIKELY TO REACH
SEVERE LEVELS (AND WILL BE TOO PROGRESSIVE TO POSE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT). GUSTY CONDITIONS WITH DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE RIDGES
WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND SLIGHTLY EAST WITH THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL, AND STORM TOTALS HAVE SLIGHTLY DECREASED
AS A RESULT. PROBABILITIES FOR >1" TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT REMAIN HIGHEST (>50%) ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND
IN THE LAURELS, WITH AREAS OVER 80% ACROSS PRESTON AND TUCKER
COUNTIES. FORECAST TOTALS GENERALLY RUN FROM 0.50" TO 0.75"
ELSEWHERE, WITH <0.5" NORTH OF I-80. IF A FLOODING THREAT WERE
TO DEVELOP, THE FOCUS IS ON THE WV HIGHER TERRAIN AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WITH SURFACE EAST WINDS MAY RESULT
IN PRECIPITATION RATE ENHANCEMENTS. HREF MODELING HAS BACKED OFF
THE PROBABILITIES OF 2" IN THIS AREA, THOUGH MAINTAINS A SMALL
AREA OF 30-50% FOR FAR EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY (DOLLY SODS).
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TO THE AREA.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES THROUGH THIS FLOW
COULD PROMPT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY,
BUT MANY OF US SHOULD REMAIN DRY. POCKETS OF SUNSHINE AND HEIGHT
INCREASES WILL BOOST ARE TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR-AVERAGE AND
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND, WARMING NEXT
WEEK
- LIGHT RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
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SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHING CROSSING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY, EVENTUALLY
PHASING WITH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH LATE FRIDAY. GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY IS TIED TO DEGREE OF PHASING/DEPTH OF THE TROUGH,
AND ULTIMATELY THE LOCATION OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY, EVENTUALLY CROSSING INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. SOME SOLUTIONS (THOUGH
WITH INCREASINGLY LOWER MEMBERSHIP) KEEP MOST MOISTURE SOUTH OF
THE REGION, LIMITING RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND
CLEARING SHOWERS EARLIER ON SATURDAY. GIVEN INCREASING ODDS,
HAVE CHANCE RAIN/THUNDER FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLY SUNDAY
AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON RAPID HEIGHT RISES OCCURRING SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST THAT WILL FOSTER RAPID
TEMPERATURE RISES TO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHOWERS HAVE REACHED AS FAR NORTH AS US-422 AS OF 00Z, WITH SEVERAL
TERMINALS EXPERIENCING MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES, AND ZZV BEING
THE ONLY SITE TO DROP TO IFR THUS FAR. EXPECT THIS TO LARGELY
REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THIS FIRST WAVE OF
SHOWERS, WITH SLOWLY LOWERING HEIGHTS AND FKL/DUJ NOT LIKELY TO
SEE RESTRICTIONS UNTIL AFTER 06Z. THE NEXT SURGE OF RAIN WILL
OCCUR AFTER THIS TIME AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES UP THE OHIO
VALLEY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT THE MAJORITY OF SITES BY
THE 10Z-12Z TIMEFRAME. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE LBE/MGW, WHERE
SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY PRODUCE A DOWNSLOPING EFFECT TO KEEP
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY NO WORSE THAN MVFR.
THAT SAME SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 30-40 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS AT PIT, AGC, BVI, HLG, AND MGW
OVERNIGHT. DOWNSLOPING MAY PRODUCE 20-30 KNOT GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG
THE WEST FACE OF THE LAURELS, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING LBE.
SHOWERS AND IFR RESTRICTIONS (SAVE FOR MGW/LBE) SHOULD CONTINUE PAST
SUNRISE, WITH SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
I-70 DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER COVERAGE MAY ALSO DROP OFF
DEPENDING ON ADVANCEMENT OF THE SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
UPPER TROUGHING THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE
SCATTERED MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS, LARGELY DURING PERIODS
OF DIURNAL HEATING. MORE LASTING VFR CONDITIONS MAY ARRIVE ON
SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH IS REPLACED BY A RIDGING PATTERN.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RACKLEY
NEAR TERM...AK
SHORT TERM...RACKLEY
LONG TERM...RACKLEY/FRAZIER
AVIATION...CL
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