318
FXUS61 KPBZ 281900
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
300 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL TAPER OFF THIS THIS EVENING WITH LOW
CHANCES OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY,
BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN AND DRIZZLE BECOMES MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING.
- MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT WITH FOGGY CONDITIONS.
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LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE TODAY AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRACKS NORTH. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON, EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING THIS EVENING.
LIMITED INSTABILITY ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL KEEP A NON- ZERO CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS THREAT IS
LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS LIFT NORTHWARD AND OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES. HOWEVER, A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
CROSSES. WITH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, LIGHT WINDS, AND
WARM ADVECTION, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- BRIEFLY WARMER THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE.
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SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES LIFTING NORTH INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC
ON THURSDAY WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND QUASI-
ZONAL/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL
SUPPORT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE.
HOWEVER, GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM
TODAY, A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. CAPPED AREA POPS AROUND 25%. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.
UPPER LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BEGIN
TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM INTO FRIDAY, EVENTUALLY
CROSSING THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES RIPPLE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WILL PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND DEEPENS OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW BEGINNING FRIDAY
MORNING AND LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BRIEF
LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS AND INITIAL SHORTWAVE EXITS. A SECONDARY WAVE
SATURDAY MORNING MAY REINVIGORATE LIGHT SHOWERS BEFORE COVERAGE
WANES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST COVERAGE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FAVOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF PITTSBURGH, WHERE FORCING IS BETTER NEAR THE LOW.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT. HIGHEST QPF OF
AROUND AN INCH WILL TARGET THE WV/PA RIDGES. PROBABILITIES OF
>1" ARE AROUND 30-40% FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. AREAS ALONG ZZV TO
PIT TO DUJ SHOULD GENERALLY SEE LESS THAN 0.5" THROUGH SATURDAY.
BELOW-AVERAGE DAYTIME HIGHS WITH NEAR-AVERAGE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS CLOUDY AND WET WEATHER
CONTINUES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
- WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
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ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR DEEP EASTERN CONUS
TROUGHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEIGHT
SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE BY MONDAY, WITH UPPER RIDGING FULLY
OVERHEAD BY MIDWEEK.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD LIE JUST EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPAWN
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY, BUT THE PROBABILITY
REMAINS LOW. OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE.
RISING HEIGHTS AND DRY WEATHER MONDAY WILL FAVOR A WARMING TREND
THAT WILL FINALLY USHER IN SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS. MUCH OF THE REGION OUTSIDE THE RIDGES AND I-80
CORRIDOR SHOULD NEAR 80F BY TUESDAY, WITH A 75% OR HIGHER
CHANCE OF HITTING 80F ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THIS PATTERN MAY
ALSO BRING A BOUT OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER MID-WEEK AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN THE
COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE. INCOMING DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH PRECIP CHANCES. HOWEVER, WITH SUFFICIENT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE, LIFR/IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION BETWEEN 06Z TO 13Z SOUTH
OF PIT AND NEAR ZZV WITH LIGHT WINDS, WARM ADVECTION ONGOING,
AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR RAIN OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT CIG IMPROVEMENT AFTER 18Z
THURSDAY, HIGH MVFR TO VFR IS EXPECTED.
THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG IS NOTED EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING IN MODEL SOUNDINGS.
OUTLOOK...
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
MVFR CONDITIONS CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS ON SATURDAY IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE ARE
EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SUNDAY SHOULD RESULT IN VFR AND MAINLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RACKLEY
NEAR TERM...RACKLEY
SHORT TERM...RACKLEY
LONG TERM...RACKLEY/FRAZIER
AVIATION...CRAVEN/HEFFERAN
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