380
FXUS61 KPBZ 260509
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
109 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT AND HUMID THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DAILY AFTERNOON
STORM, ISOLATED FLOODING, AND SEVERE WIND CHANCES. A SLIGHT
COOLDOWN IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH STORM AND FLOOD
CHANCES MAY LINGER DURING DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HEAT CONCERNS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 100 DEGREES.
- SEVERE STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FRO DAMAGING WINDS AGAIN WITH
FLOOD CONCERNS AS WELL.
---------------------------------------------------------------
A NIGHT OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH DAWN.
WHERE SOME CLEARING OCCURS, SOME FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BE PATCHY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALLOWING FOR
LITTLE RELIEF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAWN HOURS.
HENCE, THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE.
CONTINUED HEAT CONCERNS LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH IT IS
ANTICIPATED TO NOT BE QUITE AS INTENSE AS EARLY THIS WEEK, AND
SOME AREAS MAY NOT ATTAIN FORECASTED HIGHS SHOULD THEY BE
AFFECTED BY CONVECTION. SO FAR FOR TODAY, HREF CHANCES OF >90F
ARE GENERALLY AROUND OR >60% FOR URBAN AND VALLEY LOCATIONS, AND
20% TO 40% LIKELY FOR THE LOWLANDS SOUTH AND WEST OF
PITTSBURGH.
HREF 25TH TO 75TH MLCAPE IS 1000J/KG TO 1500 J/KG AND DCAPE IS
800 J/KG TO 1200 J/KG, CREATING YET ANOTHER DAY WITH CONFIDENCE
IN DOWNBURST POTENTIAL SHOULD STORMS FULLY UTILIZE THEIR
ENVIRONMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK, WITH FLOW
GENERALLY FROM THE WEST, SO AGAIN, FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED ON THE UP-SHEAR, WESTERLY SIDE OF ANY COLD
POOLS THAT DEVELOP INTO THE DAY. AFTERNOON HREF PWATS FOR
THURSDAY SIT BETWEEN 1.7 AND 1.8 BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH
PERCENTILE, WHICH IS TOWARD THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY.
SO TRAINING IN WARM RAIN PROCESSES REMAINS A THREAT.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY WAIN OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF THE BEST
HEATING AND MIXING, THOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN HAVE
THE LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER/STORM. AGAIN, NBM SHOWS A 80% TO
100% CHANCE OF LOWS >70F SOUTH AND EAST OF, AND INCLUDING
PITTSBURGH, WITH CHANCES A BIT LOWER NORTH OF US-422. THIS WILL
AGAIN, PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HEAT CONCERNS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY; HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE
IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM FRIDAY.
- DAILY DOWNBURST WIND AND FLOODING THREATS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
----------------------------------------------------------------
ON FRIDAY, CHANCES OF >90F ARE AGAIN HIGHEST FOR VALLEY AND
URBAN LOCATIONS, WITH NBM SHOWING A 30% TO 50% CHANCE. HEAT
INDICES COULD PUSH 100F IN THESE AREAS YET AGAIN. THIS WILL
JUSTIFY THE CONTINUATION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 8PM
FRIDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS WILL BE SIMILAR AS DAYS PRIOR,
WITH LREF SHOWING 1000 J/KG TO 1500 J/KG MLCAPE, 600 J/KG TO
800 J/KG DCAPE, AND WEAK SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH UP-SHEAR
FLOODING POTENTIAL. CHANCES AGAIN TAPER OFF AT NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES HAVE A >50% CHANCE OF LOWS >70F AGAIN SOUTH AND
WEST OF PITTSBURGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK
- POTENTIAL FOR STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE
PERIOD
-------------------------------------------------------------------
DAILY THUNDERSTORM, DOWNBURST WIND, AND FLOODING THREATS
CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
INITIATION MAY BE A BIT MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AS A FRONT SAGS
SOUTH ACROSS THE THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND THE FRONT
MAY BE A BIT MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWARD SAG.
BOTH THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
POTENTIAL MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER INTO THE
WEEKEND. MOST SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES IS BETWEEN THE MID-TO-
UPPER 80S. THIS WILL STILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY WARM, BUT COOLER
IN PERSPECTIVE, WHICH MAY ALLOW HEAT RISKS TO TEMPORARILY
REDUCE.
AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP MONDAY, THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF A
BRIEF TROUGHING PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN EXACTLY HOW STRONG THE TROUGH WILL
BE, AS INDICATED BY CLUSTERED VARIABILITY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION HAS ENDED. PATCHY
MVFR TO IFR FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR AREAS THAT SAW RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. PIT IS EXPECTED TO STAY VFR.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS CONVECTION FIRES IN THE VICINITY OF A QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR
THUNDER AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AT ALL AIRPORTS DURING THE
MOST LIKELY TIME OF OCCURRENCE.
CONVECTION SHOULD WANE AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
LINGER INTO THE EVENING WITH VFR EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG/STRATUS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE FRONT WAVERS ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE IS A LESSER POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ON
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BRUSHES BY TO THE NORTH.
SHOWERS/STORMS RETURN AGAIN MONDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM (LEFT) AND DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM (RIGHT)
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY ARE LISTED BELOW.
THURSDAY JUNE 26TH
PITTSBURGH, PA: 95F (1966) 75F (1952)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 97F (1952) 73F (1952)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 96F (1952) 74F (1952)
DUBOIS, PA: 91F (1966) 66F (2000)
WHEELING, WV: 96F (1943, 1952) 73F (1952)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 99F (1988) 71F (2022)
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ013-014-020>022-029-
031-073-075.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-
057>059-068-069.
WV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509-
510.
SYNOPSIS...SHALLENBERGER
NEAR TERM...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER/MILCAREK
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER/MILCAREK
AVIATION...WM
CLIMATE...MLB
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