545
FXUS61 KPBZ 290537
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
137 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL FINALLY SETTLE IN TODAY, BUT ANOTHER
ACTIVE PERIOD IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. PATCHY
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- QUIET WEATHER ENSUES AS LINGERING SHOWERS EXIT.
- DENSE FOG POTENTIAL INCREASES EARLY THIS MORNING.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
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LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE AREA AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
SAG SOUTHWARDS AND INSTABILITY WANES. REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD
CLEAR THE WV RIDGES WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, ABUNDANT
RESIDUAL MOISTURE, LIGHT WIND, AND SOME CLEARING OF CLOUD COVER
WILL PRESENT OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR EARLY MORNING FOG. PATCHY
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND WE WILL BE MONITORING THE NEED
FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY OR SPECIAL WX STATEMENT. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 8 AM.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE
TODAY, KEEPING MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE WV
RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE-NORMAL
UNDER INCREASINGLY ZONAL 500MB FLOW. MOST OF THE REGION WILL TOP
OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
TONIGHT, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS, THOUGH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BEING WIDESPREAD.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- STORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE-AVERAGE, BUT BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
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THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, WITH SHOWERS LIKELY RETURNING TO THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING. ELEVATED PWATS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND PLENTIFUL
INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN MEAN FLOODING LOW-END SEVERE THREATS ARE
ON THE TABLE. WPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL FINALLY CLEAR WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY, LEAVING DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MEAGER COLD
ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY AND
PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
-
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THE BREAK IN OUR MORE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO A MORE SEASONABLE LEVEL UNDER
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOW PROBABILITY RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AS MORE WAVY MID-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS. DETAILS AND TIMING REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WITH CLEARING UNDERWAY AND LIGHT WINDS WITH AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT
OF REMNANT MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE, THE POTENTIAL OF FOG
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS
THEY WILL CLEAR OUT FIRST. FOG WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES, REACHING
LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR LEVELS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND THROUGH
DAWN. SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY HELP IMPROVE VIS CONDITIONS
AFTER 12Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS.
THE BOUNDARY MAY STALL NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE THROUGH SUNDAY,
KEEPING A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IN THE
AREA, WITH MGW HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING IMPACT. FOR NOW,
PUT A PROB30 IN FOR MGW AS A THUNDERSTORM CAN'T FULLY BE RULED
OUT.
FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MAINLY CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. A CHANCE OF FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK... SHOWERS/STORMS RETURN AGAIN MONDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. RAIN AND RESTRICTION CHANCES
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE RETURNS VFR
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RACKLEY
NEAR TERM...RACKLEY
SHORT TERM...RACKLEY
LONG TERM...RACKLEY
AVIATION...CL/SHALLENBERGER
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