550
FXUS61 KPBZ 290724
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
324 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL FINALLY SETTLE IN TODAY, BUT ANOTHER
ACTIVE PERIOD IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. PATCHY
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- QUIET WEATHER ENSUES AS LINGERING SHOWERS EXIT.
- DENSE FOG POTENTIAL INCREASES EARLY THIS MORNING.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
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LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE AREA AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
SAG SOUTHWARDS AND INSTABILITY WANES. REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD
CLEAR THE WV RIDGES WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, ABUNDANT
RESIDUAL MOISTURE, LIGHT WIND, AND SOME CLEARING OF CLOUD COVER
WILL PRESENT OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR EARLY MORNING FOG. PATCHY
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND WE WILL BE MONITORING THE NEED
FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY OR SPECIAL WX STATEMENT. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 8 AM.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE
TODAY, KEEPING MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE WV
RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE-NORMAL
UNDER INCREASINGLY ZONAL 500MB FLOW. MOST OF THE REGION WILL TOP
OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
TONIGHT, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS, THOUGH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BEING WIDESPREAD.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- STORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE-AVERAGE, BUT BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
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THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, WITH SHOWERS LIKELY RETURNING TO THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING. ELEVATED PWATS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND PLENTIFUL
INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN MEAN FLOODING AND LOW-END SEVERE THREATS
ARE ON THE TABLE. WPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, AND SPC HAS INTRODUCED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WIND. CAMS INDICATE A MORE DISCRETE,
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, WITH BETTER ORGANIZATION IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A CROSSING
COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE POST-FRONTAL CLEARING DURING THE DAY. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND MEAGER COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY.
- A CROSSING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT MAY BRING LOW-PROBABILITY
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
- GENERALLY DRY, BUT LOW PROBABILITY RAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
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DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THE AREA. THIS WILL INTRODUCE LOWER-END POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH GROWING PROBABILITIES FOR
DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WITH CLEARING UNDERWAY AND LIGHT WINDS WITH AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT
OF REMNANT MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE, THE POTENTIAL OF FOG
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS
THEY WILL CLEAR OUT FIRST. FOG WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES, REACHING
LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR LEVELS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND THROUGH
DAWN. SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY HELP IMPROVE VIS CONDITIONS
AFTER 12Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS.
THE BOUNDARY MAY STALL NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE THROUGH SUNDAY,
KEEPING A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IN THE
AREA, WITH MGW HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING IMPACT. FOR NOW,
PUT A PROB30 IN FOR MGW AS A THUNDERSTORM CAN'T FULLY BE RULED
OUT.
FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MAINLY CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. A CHANCE OF FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK... SHOWERS/STORMS RETURN AGAIN MONDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. RAIN AND RESTRICTION CHANCES
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE RETURNS VFR
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RACKLEY
NEAR TERM...RACKLEY
SHORT TERM...RACKLEY
LONG TERM...RACKLEY
AVIATION...CL/SHALLENBERGER
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