176
FXUS61 KPBZ 291315
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
915 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN FOCUSED SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH, NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT. SCATTERED STORM CHANCES
INCREASE TOMORROW, A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR FLOODING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH TODAY
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT
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THE PROBABILITY OF FOG AND LOW-LEVEL STATUS CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
FROM NOW THROUGH 11AM THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE HEATING.
A STALLED BOUNDARY, JUST SOUTH OF I-70, WILL KEEP MOST SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE WV/PA RIDGES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE-NORMAL UNDER INCREASINGLY ZONAL 500MB FLOW. MOST
OF THE REGION WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. WITH ELEVATED
DEW POINTS, THE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB NEAR 90 DEGREES.
TONIGHT, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS, THOUGH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BEING WIDESPREAD. IF THERE IS FOG, HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOTING AREAS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH--LIKELY
NEAR THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- STORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE-AVERAGE, BUT BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
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THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, WITH SHOWERS LIKELY RETURNING TO THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING. ELEVATED PWATS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND PLENTIFUL
INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN MEAN FLOODING AND LOW-END SEVERE THREATS
ARE ON THE TABLE. WPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, AND SPC HAS INTRODUCED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WIND. CAMS INDICATE A MORE DISCRETE,
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, WITH BETTER ORGANIZATION IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A CROSSING
COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE POST-FRONTAL CLEARING DURING THE DAY. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND MEAGER COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY.
- A CROSSING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT MAY BRING LOW-PROBABILITY
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
- GENERALLY DRY, BUT LOW PROBABILITY RAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
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DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THE AREA. THIS WILL INTRODUCE LOWER-END POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH GROWING PROBABILITIES FOR
DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MVFR/IFR CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DISSOLVE BETWEEN 13Z TO
16Z WITH SURFACE HEATING.
THE BOUNDARY MAY STALL NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE THROUGH SUNDAY,
KEEPING A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IN THE
AREA, WITH MGW HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING IMPACT. FOR NOW,
PUT A PROB30 IN FOR MGW AS A THUNDERSTORM CAN'T FULLY BE RULED
OUT.
FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MAINLY CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. A CHANCE OF FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK... SHOWERS/STORMS RETURN AGAIN MONDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. RAIN AND RESTRICTION CHANCES
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE RETURNS VFR
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HEFFERAN
NEAR TERM...HEFFERAN/RACKLEY
SHORT TERM...RACKLEY
LONG TERM...RACKLEY
AVIATION...HEFFERAN/DS
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