260
FXUS61 KPBZ 010600
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A CROSSING
COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ALSO POSSIBLE
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SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE LATEST CAMS INDICATE THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
BY MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS AREAS W OF PIT, WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MU
CAPE IS DEPICTED IN THE HREF MEAN BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH 0-6
KM SHEAR INCREASING TO 35-40KT. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
FLOW. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE AREA FROM NEAR A LINE
FROM DUJ TO PIT TO ZZV AND POINTS EAST IN A MARGINAL RISK, OR
LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5, FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
PWATS WILL GENERALLY BE LOWER TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH
A NW-SE GRADIENT. NW PA SHOULD SEE VALUES AROUND 1.5, WITH
AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN WV RANGING FROM 1.8 TO 2.0. THE
INCREASING FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN FASTER STORM MOTION
TODAY, THOUGH IF ANY TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING OCCURS A
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE. WILL INCLUDE BOTH
THE LOCALIZED FLOOD POTENTIAL AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE REGION TOWARD
EVENING, THOUGH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING, SHEAR, AND
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- PATCHY FOG TONIGHT
- DRY WEDNESDAY
- SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
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MUCH OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD
BE EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION, KEEPING SOME CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/STORMS UNTIL FROPA.
A CLEARING SKY, NEARLY CALM WIND, AND MOIST GROUND COULD LEAD TO
SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT AND DISSIPATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT, IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION ON
THURSDAY. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY INHIBIT UPDRAFT GROWTH,
LIMITING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. INCLUDED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
- INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY AND MONDAY
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MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE
MIDWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.
THE RIDGE IS THEN PROGGED TO FLATTEN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW ALOFT ARE EXPECTED
TO PERIODICALLY CROSS THE REGION, WITH DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING.
EVEN AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS, 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR 590 DAM. THIS WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH HIGHS POSSIBLE AGAIN AROUND 90 SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MOST SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS MORNING SAVE FOR CLUSTERS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF MGW. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A
MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN, IMPACTING MOST
SITES FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS AND JUST ENOUGH MIXING
SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD FOG FROM DEVELOPING. SLOW CIG IMPROVEMENT
IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE, FOLLOWING BY AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
RAIN RUN GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ZZV
THROUGH PIT TO DUJ.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY AID WIDESPREAD
LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND PATCHY FOG AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
VFR RETURNS WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE, BEFORE RESTRICTION
AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL RETURNS WITH A THURSDAY COLD FRONT.
VFR IS EXPECTED AGAIN BY FRIDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...RACKLEY
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