787
FXUS61 KPBZ 080840
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
440 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL LINGERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LATE-WEEK AND WEEKEND OUTLOOK
FAVORS WARM AND WET CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOWER HEAT INDICES TODAY WITH VALLEY AND URBAN AREAS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 90F.
- FLASH FLOOD RISK CONTINUES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70.
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LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ROUGHLY
FROM DUJ->PIT->ZZV EARLY THIS MORNING. NEW MARTINSVILLE TO
SEVEN SPRINGS AND SOUTH SHOULD SEE THE BRUNT OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TODAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT, AND LATEST HI-RES
MODEL CONSENSUS ECHOES THIS BASED OFF OF LOOKING AT AT FORECAST
PRECIPITATION TOTALS. WPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR
THIS AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE PWATS REMAIN
>=1.75" IN GENERAL, WHICH IS 90TH PERCENTILE + FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WITH WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, EFFICIENT
RAIN RATES OF UP TO 2" WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TRAINING
POTENTIAL.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR MORE
FLOODING CHANCES SOUTH OF THE PA/WV BORDER.
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THE FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
INTO WEDNESDAY, MAINTAINING CHANCES OF RAIN AND FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER WEDNESDAY WITH A
RETURN TO SOME WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WHILE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR
SEVERE AT THIS TIME, CSU MLP AND CIPS SHOW LOW PROBABILITY
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- STALLED BOUNDARY PLAGUES THE AREA WITH DAILY PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM FAVORED TO MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
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THE BOUNDARY REALLY STRUGGLES TO MOVE MUCH HEADED INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS MID-LEVEL FLOW PARALLELS IT. LATEST ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS
KEEP IT WIGGLING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA. THIS IS GOING TO PROVIDE US WITH DAILY, DIURNALLY
DRIVEN RAIN CHANCES WITHIN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY AS
DAYTIME HEATING FIRES SHOWERS AND STORMS OFF OF IT. A RELIEF
FROM THE HIGHER PWAT AIR SEEMS UNLIKELY, SO ANY OF THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
HIGHEST PRECIP PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE MASON DIXON LINE THOUGH LOWER END PROBABILITIES WILL
EXIST AS FAR NORTH AS PITTSBURGH.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT THE BOUNDARY BACK UP NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL OVERSPREAD HIGHER PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE AREA BOTH DAYS AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. WE SHOULD FINALLY RID OUR AREA OF THAT
DISTURBANCE JUST IN TIME FOR ANOTHER ONE TO DEVELOP OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND KEEP THE UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
STILL SOME ENSEMBLE DISAGREEMENT ON HOW THAT EVOLVES, BUT NOT SEEING
TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO HOLD JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND, THOUGH WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN AROUND, THEY MAY PROVE TO
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IN SPOTS.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VIS FORECAST THIS MORNING. THERE
COULD BE WIDESPREAD IFR OR WIDESPREAD MVFR IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE
FOR PATCHY FOG. THE CHANCE FOR LOW CEILINGS AND LOW VISIBILITY IS
REPRESENTED BY TEMPOS AT MOST SITES WITH GREATER CERTAINTY AT
FKL/DUJ.
THERE PROBABILITY OF CIGS LESS THAN 1KFT ARE 60%-70% ALONG AND
AROUND THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN
SOUTHEASTERN/CENTRAL PA AND EASTERN/CENTRAL OH. THE PRIMARY IMPACT
WILL LOWER CLOUD BASES, HOWEVER, A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY IS
POSSIBLE. IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. MGW IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT MORNING SHOWERS AND LATE AFTERNOONS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THERE.
WIND WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE WEEK AS MONDAY'S COLD FRONT SLOWS AND STALLS. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORM CHANCES WILL GOVERN CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH PERIODIC AFTERNOON AND EVENING IMPACTS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...MLB
AVIATION...LUPO
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