412
FXUS61 KPBZ 081144
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
744 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL LINGERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LATE-WEEK AND WEEKEND OUTLOOK
FAVORS WARM AND WET CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOWER HEAT INDICES TODAY WITH VALLEY AND URBAN AREAS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 90F.
- FLASH FLOOD RISK CONTINUES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70.
---------------------------------------------------------------
A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE RIDING ATOP A SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD SAGGING
BOUNDARY HAS SUPPORTED SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
THIS MORNING MOVING FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO SOUTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. WITH FUMES OF MUCAPE ~500 J/KG AND 20 KNOTS OR SO
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT MAINTENANCE
OF THIS CLUSTER AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING CONCERNS WITH THIS BATCH. OTHERWISE,
AREAS OF FOG WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE, THOUGH WITH
THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, MIXING MIGHT TAKE A BIT LONGER TO
ERODE THE DECREASED VISIBILITY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BOUNDARY DRAPED ROUGHLY FROM
DUJ->PIT->ZZV THIS MORNING. NEW MARTINSVILLE TO SEVEN SPRINGS
AND SOUTH SHOULD SEE THE BRUNT OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT, AND LATEST HI-RES MODEL CONSENSUS
ECHOES THIS BASED OFF OF LOOKING AT AT FORECAST PRECIPITATION
TOTALS. WPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR THIS AREA ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE PWATS REMAIN >=1.75" IN GENERAL,
WHICH IS 90TH PERCENTILE + FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, EFFICIENT RAIN RATES OF UP TO
2" WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TRAINING POTENTIAL.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR MORE
FLOODING CHANCES SOUTH OF THE PA/WV BORDER.
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THE FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
INTO WEDNESDAY, MAINTAINING CHANCES OF RAIN AND FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER WEDNESDAY WITH A
RETURN TO SOME WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WHILE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR
SEVERE AT THIS TIME, CSU MLP AND CIPS SHOW LOW PROBABILITY
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- STALLED BOUNDARY PLAGUES THE AREA WITH DAILY PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM FAVORED TO MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
THE BOUNDARY REALLY STRUGGLES TO MOVE MUCH HEADED INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS MID-LEVEL FLOW PARALLELS IT. LATEST ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS
KEEP IT WIGGLING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA. THIS IS GOING TO PROVIDE US WITH DAILY, DIURNALLY
DRIVEN RAIN CHANCES WITHIN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY AS
DAYTIME HEATING FIRES SHOWERS AND STORMS OFF OF IT. A RELIEF
FROM THE HIGHER PWAT AIR SEEMS UNLIKELY, SO ANY OF THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
HIGHEST PRECIP PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE MASON DIXON LINE THOUGH LOWER END PROBABILITIES WILL
EXIST AS FAR NORTH AS PITTSBURGH.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT THE BOUNDARY BACK UP NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL OVERSPREAD HIGHER PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE AREA BOTH DAYS AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. WE SHOULD FINALLY RID OUR AREA OF THAT
DISTURBANCE JUST IN TIME FOR ANOTHER ONE TO DEVELOP OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND KEEP THE UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
STILL SOME ENSEMBLE DISAGREEMENT ON HOW THAT EVOLVES, BUT NOT SEEING
TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO HOLD JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND, THOUGH WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN AROUND, THEY MAY PROVE TO
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IN SPOTS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
RESTRICTIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE BOARD THIS MORNING VARYING
FROM LIFR TO MVFR. THOSE SOCKED IN WITH FOG HAVE SEEN VISIBILITY
DIP TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS WITH LOW CEILINGS, THOUGH SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS COMING WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLES
OF THUNDER ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS IS
MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT HLG, BVI, PIT, AND AGC THROUGH 14Z OR SO,
AND THE RAIN SHOULD BRING VISIBILITY UP SOME AS IT TURNS OVER
THE LOW LEVELS. OTHER SITES THAT DON'T SEE RAIN WILL SEE
VISIBILITY GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE WITH A RETURN TO VFR
LIKELY AFTER 14Z (PERHAPS AN HOUR OR TWO LATER FOR FKL/DUJ), AND
CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR AS THEY SCATTER
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE SOUTHEASTWARD SAGGING
SURFACE BOUNDARY.
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS DAYTIME HEATING
INVIGORATES DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FKL/DUJ/ZZV SHOULD AVOID ANY OF THIS
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR IN
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE MOST LIKELY AFTER 15Z FOR PIT
AND SURROUNDING TERMINALS, LBE AND MGW AFTER 18Z. THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS, BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT IN THE EXACT
TIMING OF TSRA TO ANY GIVEN TERMINAL, AND REDUCTION TO
VISIBILITY WITH HEAVY RAIN IS MORE LIKELY TO BE THE GREATER
IMPACT, SO WILL FURTHER AMEND IF THE THUNDER THREAT IS MORE
APPARENT.
WIND WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE WEEK AS MONDAY'S COLD FRONT SLOWS AND STALLS. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORM CHANCES WILL GOVERN CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH PERIODIC AFTERNOON AND EVENING IMPACTS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...MLB/88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...MLB
AVIATION...MLB/LUPO
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