777
FXUS61 KPBZ 051751
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
151 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR MOST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A PATTERN SHIFT BRINGS HOTTER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INCREASES PROBABILITIES OF MUGGY
CONDITIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
- LOW PROBABILITY (<20%) OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN EASTERN OHIO.
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE. THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH ANOTHER AXIS
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. THE ENCROACHMENT OF A LIL BIT OF
MOISTURE WILL MAKE WAY FOR A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH CLEARING SKIES HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE BY 00Z. FINALLY, THE
OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INSTANCES OF
VALLEY FOG TOWARDS DAWN.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
- LOW PROBABILITY (<20%) OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN EASTERN OHIO.
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THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE AXIS MORE
ALIGNED ALONG THE MS VALLEY. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
ADVECTED NORTHWARD WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES, THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTERNOON
AND POTENTIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A WEAK
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW PROBABILITY FOR A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE WEST
VIRGINIA RIDGES THROUGH LATE WEEK.
- HEAT POTENTIALLY RETURNS THIS WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AREAWIDE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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ASIDE FROM LOW CHANCES (<20%) FOR A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER
THE NORTHERN WV RIDGES, HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A NUMBER OF MODELS CONTINUE TO
FAVOR A WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NBM 25TH
PERCENTILE STILL DEPICTS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S BEGINNING FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THE CURRENT NWS HEATRISK FORECAST SHOWS MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT-
RELATED IMPACTS DEVELOPING SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MOISTURE
ALSO RETURNS TO THE AREA AND CONDITIONS BECOME MUGGY. INCREASING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACCOMPANY THIS MOISTURE RETURN,
WITH POPS INCREASING TO 20-30% SOUTH OF I-80 ON SUNDAY AND
AREAWIDE ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO
TUESDAY AS WELL.
AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EASE TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT
OUT OF THE EAST. FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND 5-6KFT TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNSET. ZZV MAINTAINS A 20%-25% CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH 00Z ON THE FRINGES OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.
BASED ON PERSISTENCE FORECASTS FROM THE PREVIOUS THREE NIGHTS
OF SIMILAR WIND DIRECTIONS POINTS TOWARDS FOG DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AT FKL. ALL OTHER PORTS ARE EXPECTED TO
OBSERVE CONTINUES VFR CONDITIONS.
TOMORROW, WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED AT 5-10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AGAIN, EXPECT SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU
AROUND 5-6KFT DURING THE DAYTIME.
OUTLOOK... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH
THIS WEEK SAVE ANY VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORMS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CERMAK/SHALLENBERGER
NEAR TERM...CERMAK/SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...CERMAK/SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...CERMAK/SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...LUPO
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