730
FXUS61 KPBZ 060513
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
113 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRAY SHOWERS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS AND
HOT CONDITIONS RETURN LATE WEEK WITH A PATTERN SHIFT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRAY SHOWERS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH THIS EVENING
- OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE WITH LINGERING CLOUDS
- DISORGANIZED SHOWERS MAY APPEAR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
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ISOLATED, LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO WEAK, MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES DUE TO DRY AIR
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LESSEN AFTER
8PM.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR AVERAGE WITH AN
OVERCAST SKY, REDUCING RADIATIONAL COOLING CHANCES AFTER SUNSET.
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS MIGHT FORM AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY DURING THE
HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY. ACCORDING TO DETAILED MODELS, AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH ARE MOST LIKELY TO GET SOME
NOTICEABLE LIGHT RAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE NEAR
AVERAGE; LOW TO MID-80S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
- LOW PROBABILITY (<20%) OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN EASTERN OHIO.
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THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE AXIS MORE
ALIGNED ALONG THE MS VALLEY. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
ADVECTED NORTHWARD WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES, THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTERNOON
AND POTENTIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A WEAK
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW PROBABILITY FOR A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE WEST
VIRGINIA RIDGES THROUGH LATE WEEK.
- HEAT POTENTIALLY RETURNS THIS WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AREAWIDE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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ASIDE FROM LOW CHANCES (<20%) FOR A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER
THE NORTHERN WV RIDGES, HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A NUMBER OF MODELS CONTINUE TO
FAVOR A WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NBM 25TH
PERCENTILE STILL DEPICTS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S BEGINNING FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THE CURRENT NWS HEATRISK FORECAST SHOWS MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT-
RELATED IMPACTS DEVELOPING SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MOISTURE
ALSO RETURNS TO THE AREA AND CONDITIONS BECOME MUGGY. INCREASING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACCOMPANY THIS MOISTURE RETURN,
WITH POPS INCREASING TO 20-30% SOUTH OF I-80 ON SUNDAY AND
AREAWIDE ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO
TUESDAY AS WELL.
AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
BEGINNING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD BUT VFR EXPECTED FOR ALL
EXCEPT FKL. PERSISTENCE FORECASTING ONCE AGAIN POINTS TOWARDS FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE RIVER VALLEY NEAR FKL AND THEN ADVECTING INTO THE
PORT ALONG A LIGHT E'RLY WIND. CONTINUED TEMPOS FOR LBE AND ZZV
WHERE AFTERNOON DEW POINTS DROPPED TO EXPECTED LOW TEMPERATURES
HINTING AT THE CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
MAY HINDER THIS CHANCE SLIGHTLY WITH WEAKER RADIATIVE COOLING THAN
ON PRIOR NIGHTS.
WINDS ACCELERATE TOMORROW BUT LARGELY REMAIN SUSTAINED NEAR 10KTS.
THE OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15KTS COULD HAPPEN ACROSS THE REGION. ONCE
AGAIN EXPECT CHANCES FOR A SCATTERED CU FIELD BETWEEN 5-8KFT BUT
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BREAK AS WE MOVE LATER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS LOW SHOWER CHANCES (PEAKING AT ABOUT 15%)
FOR FKL AND ZZV BUT CHANCES AREN'T HIGH ENOUGH FOR MENTIONS AND
RESTRICTIONS FROM THIS ACTIVITY ARE EVEN LESS LIKELY.
OUTLOOK... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH THIS
WEEK SAVE ANY MORNING FOG AND VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWER/STORMS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HEFFERAN
NEAR TERM...HEFFERAN
SHORT TERM...CERMAK/SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...CERMAK/SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...AK
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