924
FXUS61 KPBZ 060554
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
154 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRAY SHOWERS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS AND HOT CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A PATTERN SHIFT. PROBABILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRAY SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT
OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
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DISORGANIZED, ISOLATED SHOWERS MIGHT FORM AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AS WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE. DUE
TO SPARSE COVERAGE AND THE VERY LIGHT NATURE OF ANY OBSERVED
RAINFALL (LIKELY LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES), GUIDANCE HAS MAINTAINED
LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES PEAKING AROUND
10% DURING AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR; LOW TO MID-80S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
- LOW PROBABILITY (<20%) OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN EASTERN OHIO.
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THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE AXIS MORE ALIGNED ALONG THE MS
VALLEY. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS WILL CONTINUE, BUT WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND A SPARSE COVERAGE WITH ANYTHING
THAT DOES FORM, POPS WILL REMAIN LOW (IN THE 10-20% RANGE).
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL;
MID 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LOW TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW PROBABILITIES FOR A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- HEAT RETURNS SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AREAWIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
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OUTSIDE OF LINGERING LOW RAIN CHANCES (~10%) FOR A STRAY
AFTERNOON SHOWER, HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS PREDOMINANTLY DRY
WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR
A WARMING TREND BEGINNING FRIDAY, WITH PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES >90 DEGREES INCREASING TO 40-60% IN VALLEYS AND
URBAN AREAS ON SATURDAY, AND 70% OR GREATER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE CURRENT NWS HEATRISK FORECAST
SHOWS MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS BEGINNING TO CREEP
INTO VALLEYS AND URBAN AREAS ON SATURDAY, AND THEN REALLY
RAMPING UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINING AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA AND CONDITIONS BECOME
MUGGY. INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACCOMPANY THIS
MOISTURE RETURN, WITH POPS INCREASING TO 20-30% SOUTH OF I-80 ON
MONDAY AND AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
BEGINNING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD BUT VFR EXPECTED FOR ALL
EXCEPT FKL. PERSISTENCE FORECASTING ONCE AGAIN POINTS TOWARDS FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE RIVER VALLEY NEAR FKL AND THEN ADVECTING INTO THE
PORT ALONG A LIGHT E'RLY WIND. CONTINUED TEMPOS FOR LBE AND ZZV
WHERE AFTERNOON DEW POINTS DROPPED TO EXPECTED LOW TEMPERATURES
HINTING AT THE CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
MAY HINDER THIS CHANCE SLIGHTLY WITH WEAKER RADIATIVE COOLING THAN
ON PRIOR NIGHTS.
WINDS ACCELERATE TOMORROW BUT LARGELY REMAIN SUSTAINED NEAR 10KTS.
THE OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15KTS COULD HAPPEN ACROSS THE REGION. ONCE
AGAIN EXPECT CHANCES FOR A SCATTERED CU FIELD BETWEEN 5-8KFT BUT
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BREAK AS WE MOVE LATER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS LOW SHOWER CHANCES (PEAKING AT ABOUT 15%)
FOR FKL AND ZZV BUT CHANCES AREN'T HIGH ENOUGH FOR MENTIONS AND
RESTRICTIONS FROM THIS ACTIVITY ARE EVEN LESS LIKELY.
OUTLOOK... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH THIS
WEEK SAVE ANY MORNING FOG AND VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWER/STORMS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CERMAK
NEAR TERM...CERMAK/HEFFERAN
SHORT TERM...CERMAK/SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...CERMAK/SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...AK
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