839
FXUS61 KPBZ 061153
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
753 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRAY SHOWERS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS AND HOT CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A PATTERN SHIFT. PROBABILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRAY SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT
OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
---------------------------------------------------------------
DISORGANIZED, ISOLATED SHOWERS MIGHT FORM AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AS WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE. DUE
TO SPARSE COVERAGE AND THE VERY LIGHT NATURE OF ANY OBSERVED
RAINFALL (LIKELY LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES), GUIDANCE HAS MAINTAINED
LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES PEAKING AROUND
10% DURING AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR; LOW TO MID-80S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
- LOW PROBABILITY (<20%) OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN EASTERN OHIO.
----------------------------------------------------------------
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE AXIS MORE ALIGNED ALONG THE MS
VALLEY. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS WILL CONTINUE, BUT WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND A SPARSE COVERAGE WITH ANYTHING
THAT DOES FORM, POPS WILL REMAIN LOW (IN THE 10-20% RANGE).
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL;
MID 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LOW TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW PROBABILITIES FOR A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- HEAT RETURNS SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AREAWIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
OUTSIDE OF LINGERING LOW RAIN CHANCES (~10%) FOR A STRAY
AFTERNOON SHOWER, HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS PREDOMINANTLY DRY
WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR
A WARMING TREND BEGINNING FRIDAY, WITH PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES >90 DEGREES INCREASING TO 40-60% IN VALLEYS AND
URBAN AREAS ON SATURDAY, AND 70% OR GREATER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE CURRENT NWS HEATRISK FORECAST
SHOWS MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS BEGINNING TO CREEP
INTO VALLEYS AND URBAN AREAS ON SATURDAY, AND THEN REALLY
RAMPING UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINING AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA AND CONDITIONS BECOME
MUGGY. INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACCOMPANY THIS
MOISTURE RETURN, WITH POPS INCREASING TO 20-30% SOUTH OF I-80 ON
MONDAY AND AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF
THE HIGH CENTER WILL MEAN A RATHER STAGNANT AIR MASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE SOME MORE MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE, THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS OF HAZE AND SMOKE UP NORTH, THIS COULD
KEEP SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS AT FKL AND DUJ.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT SOME VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. AS ALWAYS, THERE
IS A POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A
THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOG LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH THIS
WEEK SAVE ANY MORNING FOG AND VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWER/STORMS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CERMAK/HEFFERAN
NEAR TERM...CERMAK/HEFFERAN
SHORT TERM...CERMAK/SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...CERMAK/SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page