934
FXUS61 KPBZ 061817
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
217 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH MANY AREAS REMAINING DRY. A WARMING
TREND BEGINS THIS WEEKEND UNDER UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE, WITH
HOT CONDITIONS RETURNING BY SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE BRINGS
BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRAY SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT
OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
---------------------------------------------------------------
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WITH GENERALLY WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS OUR REGION INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-80 EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT RESIDES. EXPECT
THESE TO LIFT OUT/FADE THROUGH THE MID- AFTERNOON AS SUPPORT
WEAKENS. REMAINING CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS WELL,
LEADING TO A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PATCHY, LOW-
PROBABILITY (MOSTLY 10% OR LESS OF RESTRICTIONS VIA HREF) VALLEY
FOG MAY POP UP ON AN ISOLATED BASIS.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT, WITH
VALUES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
- LOW PROBABILITY (<20%) OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN EASTERN OHIO
AND THE HIGHER WV RIDGES.
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THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY EXPANDS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING LIMITED AND GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE COLUMN,
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING REMAINS
VERY LOW OVERALL ACROSS THE REGION. POTENTIAL LOCATIONS FOR SUCH
WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN OHIO (SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE LEADING TO A
CAPE UPTICK) AND THE HIGHEST NORTHERN WV RIDGES (ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE EFFECT).
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLE OVERALL, AND WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING MANAGEABLE, HEAT RISK REMAINS IN THE MINOR CATEGORY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW PROBABILITIES FOR A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- HEAT RETURNS SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AREAWIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
THERE IS STRONG ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING STOUT MID-LEVEL
RIDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY. A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH
THE EXPECTATION OF SUBSIDENCE. A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST, AS NBM
PROBABILITIES OF MAX TEMPS 90 OR GREATER REACH THE 50-70% RANGE IN
VALLEYS/URBAN AREAS ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY/MONDAY, AREAWIDE NON-
RIDGE PROBABILITIES REACH THE 60-80% RANGE, WHILE URBAN/VALLEYS
APPROACH 90%. GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF RAIN/ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS
AND RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINT EXPECTATIONS, THESE PROBABILITIES
SEEM REASONABLE. HEAT RISK BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE MODERATE
RANGE THIS WEEKEND, AND THEN PERHAPS INTO THE MAJOR CATEGORY FOR
URBAN AREAS ON MONDAY.
THE RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
AS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS
CLUSTERS AS TO THE TIMING AND DEPTH OF THIS TROUGH, WHICH LENDS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER, INCREASING POPS SEEM
APPROPRIATE FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS INCREASED
MOISTURE/HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS ALSO
EXPANDS THE MAJOR HEAT RISK CATEGORY TO MORE PORTIONS OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY, WITH PERHAPS SOME MITIGATION WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND RAIN. EXTENDED MACHINE-LEARNING CONVECTIVE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPTICK IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF
THE HIGH CENTER WILL MEAN A RATHER STAGNANT AIR MASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS OF HAZE AND SMOKE
UP NORTH, THIS COULD KEEP SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS AT
FKL AND DUJ. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SOME VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. AS
ALWAYS, THERE IS A POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOG LATE TONIGHT. MORING
FOG IS ONCE AGAIN LOW PROBABILITY TONIGHT, MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE VALLEYS.
OUTLOOK... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH THIS
WEEK SAVE ANY MORNING FOG AND VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWER/STORMS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CL
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...MILCAREK/SHALLENBERGER
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