453
FXUS61 KPBZ 062357
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
757 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY,
WITH MANY AREAS REMAINING DRY. A WARMING TREND BEGINS THIS
WEEKEND UNDER UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE, WITH HOT CONDITIONS
RETURNING SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DECREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
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SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE, WITH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
PROBABILITY OF FOG REMAINS LOW EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
- LOW PROBABILITY (<20%) OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN EASTERN OHIO
AND THE HIGHER WV RIDGES.
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THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY EXPANDS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING LIMITED AND GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE COLUMN,
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING REMAINS
VERY LOW OVERALL ACROSS THE REGION. POTENTIAL LOCATIONS FOR SUCH
WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN OHIO (SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE LEADING TO A
CAPE UPTICK) AND THE HIGHEST NORTHERN WV RIDGES (ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE EFFECT).
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLE OVERALL, AND WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING MANAGEABLE, HEAT RISK REMAINS IN THE MINOR CATEGORY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW PROBABILITIES FOR A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- HEAT RETURNS SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AREAWIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
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THERE IS STRONG ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING STOUT MID-LEVEL
RIDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY. A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH
THE EXPECTATION OF SUBSIDENCE. A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST, AS NBM
PROBABILITIES OF MAX TEMPS 90 OR GREATER REACH THE 50-70% RANGE IN
VALLEYS/URBAN AREAS ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY/MONDAY, AREAWIDE NON-
RIDGE PROBABILITIES REACH THE 60-80% RANGE, WHILE URBAN/VALLEYS
APPROACH 90%. GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF RAIN/ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS
AND RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINT EXPECTATIONS, THESE PROBABILITIES
SEEM REASONABLE. HEAT RISK BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE MODERATE
RANGE THIS WEEKEND, AND THEN PERHAPS INTO THE MAJOR CATEGORY FOR
URBAN AREAS ON MONDAY.
THE RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
AS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS
CLUSTERS AS TO THE TIMING AND DEPTH OF THIS TROUGH, WHICH LENDS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER, INCREASING POPS SEEM
APPROPRIATE FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS INCREASED
MOISTURE/HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS ALSO
EXPANDS THE MAJOR HEAT RISK CATEGORY TO MORE PORTIONS OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY, WITH PERHAPS SOME MITIGATION WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND RAIN. EXTENDED MACHINE-LEARNING CONVECTIVE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPTICK IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20-25KTS MIGHT OCCUR AT LBE. OTHERWISE,
MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS. PROBABILITY OF FOG IS LOW.
OUTLOOK... POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WEST OF PIT
BETWEEN 19Z TO 23Z THURSDAY WITH WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN
4KFT-5KFT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CL/MILCAREK
NEAR TERM...CL/MILCAREK
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...HEFFERAN
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