707  
FXUS61 KPBZ 070454  
AFDPBZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA  
1254 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
DRY WEATHER FAVORED AS TEMPERATURE SLOWLY RISES TOWARDS ABOVE  
NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE MAY  
LINGER THROUGH NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO THE RETURN OF AREAWIDE SHOWER  
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE.  
---------------------------------------------------------------  
 
HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE NEW ENGLAND REGION WILL CONTINUE TO  
INFLUENCE THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THERE IS HIGH  
CONFIDENCE IN: A FEW TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS, DRY WEATHER  
FOR MOST OF THE REGION, OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS OUT OF THE  
EAST AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH, AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE.  
 
SUBTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE ATLANTIC WITHIN THE LOWER  
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPAWN AN ISOLATED SHOWER  
OVER THE EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN OF TUCKER COUNTY, AIDED BY THE  
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. BUT DRY, WARM AIR ALOFT AND MINIMAL JET  
SUPPORT IS MORE LIKELY TO KEEP EVEN THIS REGION DRY.  
 
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ENOUGH EASTERLY FLOW  
TO LIMIT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT LEADS TO VALLEY FOG.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES THE RECENT DRY TREND.  
- TEMPERATURE WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT  
LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW CRITERIA.  
 
----------------------------------------------------------------  
 
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES  
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE FAR  
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RESULT IS A  
CONTINUATION OF HIGH PROBABILITY (GREATER THAN 90%) OF RAIN-FREE  
DAYS DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE TEMPERATURE SLOWLY CLIMBS AROUND 5  
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE DAILY AVERAGE. DUE TO THE LACK OF  
NOTABLE SURFACE FLOW (AND POTENTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION), AREA  
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW DURING DAYTIME HOURS AND HELP KEEP  
HEAT INDICES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW HAZARD CRITERIA (WHICH  
STARTS AT 100 DEGREES).  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FAVORED TO START MONDAY.  
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AREAWIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
-------------------------------------------------------------------  
 
THE FOCUS ON POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGES NEXT WEEK WILL BE ON THE  
EVOLUTION OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FAR NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS  
TROUGH THAT IS FAVORED TO MOVE EASTWARD MONDAY THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY. CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF WEATHER MODELS SUGGESTS THERE IS  
SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN TROUGH AMPLITUDE AND TIMING THAT WILL PLAY  
A ROLE IN WHEN THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
CURRENT CONSENSUS FAVORS SOME MOISTURE INFLUX AHEAD OF THE  
TROUGH MONDAY THAT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO APPROACH  
FAR EASTERN OHIO ZONES OR OVER THE WV HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE,  
DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS PERSIST MONDAY. THEN, GRADUAL  
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH CREATES WIDESPREAD CHANCES  
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES DECREASING  
(SLIGHTLY LOWER MAX AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER MIN). THE MOST LIKELY  
DEVIATION FROM THIS CONSENSUS IS LIKELY A MORE PESSIMISTIC  
OUTLOOK ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND MORE OF A CONTINUATION OF  
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SEEN MONDAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND  
RIDGING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY  
EAST WIND, FAVORING THAT AFTERNOONS, THAT REACH 15 TO 20KTS.  
ADDITIONALLY, UPSLOPE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY ALLOW FOR  
SCATTERED VFR CIGS TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS  
NEAR LBE AND DUJ (WITH 20-30% PROBABILITY FOR MVFR HEIGHTS AT  
DUJ).  
 
OUTLOOK...  
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS  
NEAR LBE/DUJ FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE  
IN VFR WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CU THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
THE NEXT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCE IS NOT FAVORED UNTIL  
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
PA...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...FRAZIER  
NEAR TERM...FRAZIER  
SHORT TERM...FRAZIER  
LONG TERM...FRAZIER  
AVIATION...FRAZIER  
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