740
FXUS61 KPBZ 071748
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
148 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND TO
VALUES ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
---------------------------------------------------------------
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO EXERT INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION. MARGINAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE ATLANTIC IS FUELING DIURNAL CUMULUS OVER THE
REGION, BUT THE PRESENCE OF A WARM LAYER IN THE MID-LEVELS IS
KEEPING ANY FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN CHECK. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER ON THE HIGHER WEST VIRGINIA RIDGES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AN UPSLOPE ASSIST, BUT DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST
IN ALL OTHER CASES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. DEEP MIXING MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S ARE ACHIEVED.
THE CUMULUS WILL COLLAPSE WITH SUNSET, AND ANOTHER QUIET
NIGHT IS FORECAST. ANY VALLEY FOG WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW
LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH AT MOST, AS ONGOING SOUTHEAST
FLOW KEEPS UP ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT FORMATION IN OTHER CASES.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MAY END UP A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
THAN THIS MORNING, THANKS TO A SUBTLE DEWPOINT INCREASE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
- TEMPERATURE WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW CRITERIA.
----------------------------------------------------------------
A HIGH-CONFIDENCE PATTERN CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND,
AS ENSEMBLES AGREE ON SLOWLY RISING 500MB HEIGHTS IN RESPONSE TO
NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGHING. THE RIDGE AXIS TRUDGES SLOWLY
EASTWARD, ARRIVING IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY. THE
DEARTH OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURN LENDS SUPPORT TO
THE CONTINUATION OF A DRY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE IN LOCK-STEP WITH THE HEIGHTS,
LIKELY EXCEEDING 90 BY SUNDAY. STILL, THE EXPERIMENTAL HEAT RISK
ONLY SHOWS INCREASES INTO THE MODERATE RANGE BY THAT DAY, AS
THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MEANS THAT DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
MANAGEABLE. THIS KEEPS HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER 90S AS A
GENERAL RULE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CONTINUES MONDAY
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AREAWIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND TIMING EXISTS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
THE RIDGE STARTS TO GIVE WAY NEXT WEEK, AS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE THE APPROACH OF A NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. CLUSTER ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE VARIOUS MEMBERS WITH STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF THE DISTURBANCE. WITH THE MAJORITY SUGGESTING SOME
MITIGATION OF THE ELEVATED 500MB HEIGHTS AND A MOISTURE
INCREASE, SOME SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODERATION/DECREASE IN DIURNAL
RANGE AND AN INCREASE IN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SEEMS
APPROPRIATE FOR THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THERE IS ONE CLUSTER THAT
FEATURES A MUCH WEAKER WAVE AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD - THIS
SCENARIO WOULD POINT TO BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A CONTINUED DRY AND
HOT PATTERN EVEN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DESPITE THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES STILL
APPEAR RELATIVELY LOW THIS FAR OUT. ENSEMBLES DO NOT FEATURE A
FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AT THIS DISTANCE, AND
EXTENDED MACHINE-LEARNING GUIDANCE ONLY FEATURES A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES. PLUS, THE CURRENT STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER WOULD SEEMINGLY KEEP THE FLOODING THREAT SUPPRESSED ONCE
RAIN DOES RETURN. THUS, OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING HEAT
CONCERNS, OVERALL CHANCES OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER REMAIN LOW.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL LEAD
TO OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHEAST WIND, FAVORING THE AFTERNOON,
THAT REACH 15 TO 20KTS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EASE OVERNIGHT, BUT THEY WILL STAY BRISK
ENOUGH TO INHIBIT RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE UPSLOPE
FLOW, HOWEVER, MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS
NEAR LBE/DUJ FRIDAY MORNING. CEILING CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH FEW/SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD. WIND
TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS GUSTY THAN TODAY WITH DIRECTION
SLIGHTLY SHIFTING MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
OUTLOOK...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED
DIURNAL CU THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCE IS NOT FAVORED UNTIL
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHICH LIKELY BRING RESTRICTIONS
TO THE AREA.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CL
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...LUPO
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