760
FXUS61 KPBZ 081726
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
126 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
AS DRY WEATHER CONTINUES, LOOK FOR AREA TEMPERATURE TO SLOWLY
RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HOLD AT THE ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
INTO NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE CONTINUES
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A PERSISTENCE FORECAST TODAY AS WEAK FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
SURFACE RIDGING STRETCHING INTO NEW ENGLAND FOSTERS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURE AND DRY WEATHER. SUBTLE INFLUX OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITHIN SE SURFACE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC MAY AID
PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS FAVORING FAR
SOUTHWEST PA INTO THE WV HIGH TERRAIN, WHICH COULD ACT TO LIMIT
HEATING BY A DEGREE IF IT COVERAGE PERSISTS LONG ENOUGH.
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL SEE THE EROSION OF MOST CLOUDS
TONIGHT, RESULTING IN ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- TEMPERATURE WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW CRITERIA.
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THERE REMAINS VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEEKEND OUTLOOK AS A NEW
ENGLAND SURFACE HIGH COMBINED WITH RIDGING ALOFT ENSURE DRY
WEATHER. THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE SLIGHT
HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST, WHICH WILL PROMOTE
A GRADUAL RISE IN AREA TEMPERATURE. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHILE SUNDAY IS CLOSER TO
10. FORTUNATELY, THE LACK OF MOIST ADVECTION GIVEN WEAK SURFACE
FLOW WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS AT BAY AND LIMIT HEAT INDICES TO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CONTINUES MONDAY
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AREAWIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND TIMING EXISTS
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HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER MONDAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING AND EAST COAST SURFACE
RIDGING. SHIFTS OF THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER SOUTHWARD AND
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TROUGH WILL
INITIATE WEAK MOIST ADVECTION THAT ALLOWS HEAT INDICES TO
APPROACH THE MID 90S WITH LOW PROBABILITY (LESS THAN 10%) OF ANY
LOCATION REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ENSEMBLE MODELS FAVOR THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TROUGH TO DRIFT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, ACTING
TO INCREASE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND PROVIDE INCREASED JET
ASCENT. EROSION OF WARM AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE SHOULD CREATE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DURING THIS
PERIOD. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY DUE TO VARIANCES IN POTENTIAL
TROUGH DEPTH/FORWARD SPEED THAT WILL INFLUENCE TIMING (TUESDAY
VS. WEDNESDAY) AND ACTUALIZED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. LATEST
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS VERY LOW PROBABILITIES OF ANY SEVERE RISK FOR
THIS PERIOD DUE TO HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF WEAK SHEAR AND MARGINAL
CAPE DEVELOPMENT, BUT POTENTIAL FOR PWATS TO APPROACH 90TH
DAILY PERCENTILES SUGGESTS A NON-ZERO FLOOD THREAT.
AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT WITH VFR THE RULE ACROSS THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS SOME RESTRICTIONS IN HAZE/WILDFIRE SMOKE,
THOUGH WITH MIXING THAT HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED WITH VIS NOW 6SM
OR GREATER. SCT TO BKN DIURNAL CU HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BASES AROUND 5-6KFT AND WILL HANG AROUND UNTIL EARLY
EVENING. A ROGUE SHOWER MAY DEVELOP OFF OF THE LAKE BREEZE AND
GLIDE SOUTH, THOUGH PROBABILITY OF IMAPACT TO FKL IS VERY LOW.
WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SE AT 5-8 KNOTS.
LIGHT TO CALM WIND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF THE CU
DECK. A FEW CIRRUS MAY STREAM BY BUT OTHERWISE AN UNIMPACTFUL
NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG IS POSSSIBLY IN THE MORNING HOURS, BUT
GIVEN PERSISTENCE FROM THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS, PROBABILITY OF
IMPACTS TO ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS LOW.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021-509>514.
SYNOPSIS...FRAZIER
NEAR TERM...FRAZIER
SHORT TERM...FRAZIER
LONG TERM...FRAZIER
AVIATION...MLB
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