683
FXUS61 KPBZ 091518
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1118 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A PATTERN SHIFT
WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ENTERING THE
REGION MID-WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST
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CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH SUFFICIENT
SURFACE HEATING UNDER A CLEAR SKY AND MIXING OF WARM AIR ALOFT.
THE NBM DEPICTS ELEVATED PROBABILITIES WITHIN THE VALLEYS AND
URBAN COMMUNITIES REACHING THE UPPER-80S/90 DEGREES TODAY (ABOVE
70% FOR 88F OR HIGHER).
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- TEMPERATURE WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW CRITERIA.
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UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO TRICKLE FARTHER EAST THROUGH MONDAY
IN RESPONSE TO A SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ALTERATION IN
THE POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE HIGH, THE OUTCOME OF THESE
FEATURES WILL BE FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
CONTINUATION OF PRIOR CONDITIONS. EXPECT TEMPERATURE TO SETTLE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE ADVECTION HELPING TO KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- TREND FAVORS THE RETURN OF PRECIPITATION MORE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY THAN TUESDAY
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE AND CONVECTION REMAIN IN FORECAST TO
END THE WEEK.
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ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES, MEANING CONVECTION IS NOW MORE LIKELY TO RETURN WEDNESDAY
VERSUS TUESDAY. AS A RESULT, TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY AND TEMPERATURE HOVERING IN
THE LOWER 90S WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE MID 60S.
WEDNESDAY IS CURRENTLY THE FAVORED DAY FOR THE RETURN OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS A RESULT OF THE TROUGH
PASSAGE. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS NOTABLE VARIATIONS IN TROUGH
DEPTH AS IT CROSSES WITH OTHER SCENARIOS SUGGESTING FURTHER
WEAKENING OF UPPER FLOW THAT LENDS TO WEAK MESOSCALE FEATURES
DRIVING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THOSE
SCENARIOS WOULD LEND TO A MORE BEARISH PROBABILITY OF A GIVEN
LOCATION SEEING A THUNDERSTORM. THE MAIN TAKEAWAY AT THIS TIME
IS INCREASED, IF ONLY LOCALIZED/SCATTERED, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MID TO LATE WEEK WHILE AREA TEMPERATURE REMAINS ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES. LACK OF WEAK FLOW AND ONLY MARGINAL CAPE
SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE RISKS. HOWEVER, PWATS THAT ARE LIKELY
(40-60% CHANCE) OF REACHING THE 90TH PERCENTILE MAY FOSTER A
FLOOD RISK, THOUGH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS SHOULD FURTHER
LIMIT THAT CONCERN.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THE CU RULE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES A FEW
DIURNAL CUMULUS LAYER DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING. WIND
SHOULD GENERALLY BE FROM THE SE AT 5KT OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HEFFERAN
NEAR TERM...HEFFERAN
SHORT TERM...FRAZIER
LONG TERM...FRAZIER
AVIATION...WM / HEFFERAN
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