902
FXUS61 KPBZ 091558
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1158 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. A PATTERN SHIFT
WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ENTERING THE
REGION MID-WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST
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CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH SUFFICIENT
SURFACE HEATING UNDER A CLEAR SKY AND MIXING OF WARM AIR ALOFT.
THE NBM DEPICTS ELEVATED PROBABILITIES WITHIN THE VALLEYS AND
URBAN COMMUNITIES REACHING THE UPPER-80S/90 DEGREES TODAY (ABOVE
70% FOR 88F OR HIGHER).
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- TEMPERATURE WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW CRITERIA.
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UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO TRICKLE FARTHER EAST THROUGH MONDAY
IN RESPONSE TO A SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ALTERATION IN
THE POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE HIGH, THE OUTCOME OF THESE
FEATURES WILL BE FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
CONTINUATION OF PRIOR CONDITIONS. EXPECT TEMPERATURE TO SETTLE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE ADVECTION HELPING TO KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
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AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS
STEMMED FROM BOTH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF SAID TROUGH, BUT
LATEST ENSEMBLE RUNS MAY BE COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT
ON TIMING WHILE AMPLITUDE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
TUESDAY IS LOOKING TO BE MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME FLAT
RIDGING AND MODEST WARMING IN THE MID-LEVELS OVERHEAD WHICH SHOULD
SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY DOESN'T GET ALL THAT TIGHTLY PACKED, SO
NOT EXPECTING NOTABLY STRONG WARM, MOIST ADVECTION IN THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF IT. STILL, DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB BACK UP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS FAVORED TO REACH 90 FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80. THE RESULTANT
COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE APPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S. ADVISORY CRITERIA (>100F HEAT INDICES) ISN'T HIGHLY PROBABLE ON
TUESDAY, AND WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE/RAIN CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY, EVEN LOWER PROBABILITY THEN.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER, THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE UPPER PATTERN LENDS LOWER CONFIDENCE TO HOW WIDESPREAD, OR
EVEN HOW HIGH, THE CHANCE MAY BE. A FLATTER SOLUTION STILL
EXHIBITED BY HALF OF THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SUGGESTS MUCH LOWER,
ISOLATED COVERAGE LOCALLY WITH LACKING UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE
FRONT; THE FLIP SIDE IS A DEEPER TROUGH SOLUTION HEAVILY
WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWFE AND THE GEPS. THIS CASE COULD RESULT
IN HIGHER COVERAGE. ENVIRONMENT-WISE, THE BEST FLOW LOOKS
DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH IN ANY SCENARIO, SO THE LACKING COMPONENT
TO ORGANIZATION WILL BE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LOWER END ENSEMBLE
DCAPE SITS AROUND 1000 J/KG, SO THE WEAKER FLOW, SUFFICIENT
CAPE, AND ELEVATED DCAPE COULD POINT TO A DOWNBURST THREAT IF
WE'RE ABLE TO DEVELOP STRONGER STORMS. THIS AGAIN IS CONTINGENT
ON THE DEEPER TROUGH BEING THE VERIFYING SOLUTION.
RIDGING THEN LOOKS TO BUILD BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH, THOUGH
TIMING UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FURTHER. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOW CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION CHANCE INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THE CU RULE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES A FEW
DIURNAL CUMULUS LAYER DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING. WIND
SHOULD GENERALLY BE FROM THE SE AT 5KT OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HEFFERAN
NEAR TERM...HEFFERAN
SHORT TERM...FRAZIER
LONG TERM...MLB
AVIATION...WM
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