228
FXUS61 KPBZ 101256
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
856 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN WITH A MID
WEEK COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
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NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE ONGOING QUIET FORECAST...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME OVER YESTERDAY, WITH
HEIGHTS AROUND 592 DM. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY'S READINGS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT AND DRY THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY
- SLIGHT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
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THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO TUESDAY, RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY
AND HOT WEATHER. A FEW MORE DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN DEW POINTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAPPING WARM AIR ALOFT SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
MUCH OF THE DAY. THE CAP IS PROGGED TO ERODE SOME IN THE
AFTERNOON, AND THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SPOTS. THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL
WITH NO OTHER FORCING EXPECTED.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST FROM THE MIDWEST
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS
TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT APPROACHES, THOUGH MOST OF ANY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES. THE COMBINATION OF
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHOULD RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES
REACHING THE 90 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE, WHICH IS BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY
- UNSETTLED PATTERN THEN REMAINING THROUGH SATURDAY
- TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE
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MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD APPROACH
AND CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO DISSIPATE
AS IT APPROACHES. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY, THOUGH THE BEST FLOW/SHEAR IS PROGGED TO STAY TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA. SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO SHOW AN ENHANCED
DCAPE DO TO SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR, THOUGH THE DETAILS OF THIS
WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF THE CROSSING TROUGH,
WHICH WILL IMPACT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
AN UPPER HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE SE CONUS
THURSDAY, AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION IS PROGGED TO BE ON THE NORTHERN/
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH, WITH GENERAL WNW FLOW
ALOFT. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL KEEP AN
OCCASIONAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
INTO THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL, TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PROBABILITY (NEAR 100%) OF VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THOUGH PATCHY
CIRRUS MAY STREAM OVERHEAD, SKIES WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY BE
CLEAR OUTSIDE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN FEW/SCATTERED CUMULUS BETWEEN
4KFT-6KFT. SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 5 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
VFR, PERSISTENCE FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT MID-WEEK WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES (FAVORING
THE AFTERNOON PERIODS) WITH PROBABILITIES PEAKING WEDNESDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM/MLB
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...FRAZIER/MLB
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