146
FXUS61 KPBZ 060324
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1124 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY A WEAK
COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. DRY AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS DECREASES LATER THIS MORNING
- COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
---------------------------------------------------------------
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH A SLOW FRONTAL PROGRESSION.
QPF FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NORTHERN WV, WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY TRANSITIONS
EASTWARD, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM W-E THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY, COOLER WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
--------------------------------------------------------------
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
EXITS.
STRATOCU SHOULD DEVELOP ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY N OF PITTSBURGH,
AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION. A WNW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES
COULD ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF I 80 FOR
THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, MOISTURE APPEARS TOO
SHALLOW FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN SOME CLOUD COVER AS THE TROUGH
CROSSES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOL
TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY NIGHT'S LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-15
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, WITH MONDAY'S HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- GRADUAL WARM UP WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- TEMPERATURE UNCERTAINTY GROWS LATE-WEEK.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
ALL CLUSTERS, SAVE ONE REPRESENTING 7% OF GUIDANCE, LIFT THE
EASTERN TROUGHING NORTH INTO-QUASI ZONAL FLOW INTO MID WEEK,
WITH OUTLIER ENSEMBLES KEEPING THE TROUGHING SLIGHTLY LONGER.
THIS WILL LIKELY PUT THE 582 DM HEIGHT LINE OVER LAKE ERIE BY
TUESDAY AND ALLOW ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPERATURES TO GET CLOSE TO
NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.
FROM THIS POINT, UNCERTAINTY INCREASE AS THE BROADNESS OF A
WESTERN RIDGE TRICKLES INTO EASTERN TEMPERATURE UNCERTAINTY. A
BROADER RIDGE MAY STRETCH INTO THE MID-WEST AND KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO NORMAL, WHILE A MORE NARROW GREAT
PLAINS RIDGE WOULD ALLOW A GREATER DEGREE OF EASTERN TROUGHING
ON THE LEEWARD SIDE. THIS TRICKLES DOWN INTO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
AMPLITUDE OF EASTERN TROUGHING LATE-WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURE
RANGES NEXT FRIDAY ANYWHERE FROM A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL
UNDER BROADER RIDGING AND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MORE
TROUGHING (25TH-75TH PERCENTILE).
ANY WAY YOU CUT THE CARDS, NOTABLE RAIN WILL BE HARD TO COME BY
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MEDIAN GUIDANCE SHOWING NO QPF
FOR THE WHOLE PERIOD, AND SHOULD WE GET ANY, IT WOULD LIKELY BE
LIMITED. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PROLONGING DROUGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A WEAK FRONT AS IT SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE EAST OF A DUJ- PIT- ZZV LINE, AND THIS IS
WHERE MVFR WOULD BE MORE LIKELY THIS MORNING. LATEST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS BETWEEN 50-60% PROBABILITIES OF MVFR CIGS AND
PROBABILITIES IN THE TEENS FOR MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS
MORNING. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD BE AREAWIDE THE AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT/SURFACE WAVE SLOWLY EXIT.
OUTLOOK.
VFR IS LARGELY EXPECTED (OTHER THAN EARLY MORNING VLY FG)
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...HEFFERAN/88
SHORT TERM...WM/88
LONG TERM...MILCAREK
AVIATION...88
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