312
FXUS61 KPBZ 060945
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
545 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY A WEAK
COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. DRY AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WAVES OF RAIN, MODERATE AT TIMES, ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT
FAVORING LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH
- HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
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AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE EASTERN FLANK OF
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE JET-INDUCED LIFT
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMS. AVAILABLE SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED
BUOYANCY SHOULD PREVENT STORMS FROM DEVELOPING SEVERE WIND
DESPITE 40KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND 40-50KTS OF SW WIND AT
700MB. AS THE WAVE TRANSLATES ENE THROUGH 10AM, EXPECT STORMS
CAPABLE OF LIGHTNING, GUSTY WIND UP TO 40 MPH, AND PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN WHILE GENERALLY STAYING EAST OF I-77 IN OHIO.
HI-RES MODELING INDICATES A PRECIPITATION LULL PERIOD DEVELOPING
AROUND 10AM IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE MOVEMENTS BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
INCREASES SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER NOON. BY THIS TIME, THE PRIOR
WAVE WILL HAVE PUSHED THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SE THROUGH MOST OF
THE REGION; THIS MEANS BUOYANCY WILL BE NEIGH AVAILABLE AND
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW (LET ALONE ANY SEVERE THREAT).
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INCHES NEAR THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY,
THE PRECIPITATION LINE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AS DRY
SLOTTING BEGINS TO ERODE CLOUDS WEST TO EAST. THOUGH LATE-DAY
SUNSHINE CAN'T BE RULED OUT, IT WILL BE TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE AS
AREA TEMPERATURE STRUGGLES TO REACH 70 DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
SURFACE COLD ADVECTION.
DRY ADVECTION AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FAVORS MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT SKIES THAT LEADS TO MORNING LOWS DIPPING INTO
THE 40S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER SUNDAY, SAVE FOR A LOCALIZED
SHOWER NORTH OF I-80
- WARMING TREND BEGINS MONDAY
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THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY; THIS WILL MAINTAIN
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURE GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT AND CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE. MODELED STREAMLINES SUGGEST THAT
ANY AFTERNOON LAKE ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY DUE TO LAKE/AIR
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES AND TROUGH-INDUCED LIFT SHOULD STAY NEAR
THE SHORT OF LAKE ERIE, BUT A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
REMAINS NORTH OF I-80.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ENTRENCHED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER AND GRADUALLY RISING (BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL)
TEMPERATURE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- GRADUAL WARM UP WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- TEMPERATURE UNCERTAINTY GROWS LATE-WEEK.
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ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY DECENT ALIGNMENT OF
CONTINUED HEIGHT RISES RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY,
THOUGH THE EASTERN CONUS WILL STAY UNDERNEATH BROAD/ELONGATED
TROUGHING. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED RISING
TEMPERATURE AND DRY WEATHER TUESDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHING
MAY START TO DIG NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS THAT IMPACTS ARE
NEGLIGIBLE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES; THUS, EXPECT
ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURE.
LONG RANGE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BIT OF A BATTLE BETWEEN THE
POSITIONING/STRENGTH OF A CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND POTENTIAL
SHORTWAVE MOVEMENTS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TROUGHING. THE UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE SITUATED WHERE DRY
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL REGARDLESS OF THE LIKELY OUTCOME
SCENARIOS AND ONLY SEE SUBTLE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. IT IS
THEN REASONABLE TO LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE, WITH NON-IMPACTFUL
TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS DEPENDING ON TROUGH POSITIONING/DEPTH.
AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A WEAK FRONT AS IT SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE EAST OF A DUJ- PIT- ZZV LINE, AND THIS IS
WHERE MVFR WOULD BE MORE LIKELY THIS MORNING. LATEST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS BETWEEN 50-60% PROBABILITIES OF MVFR CIGS AND
PROBABILITIES IN THE TEENS FOR MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS
MORNING. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD BE AREAWIDE THE AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT/SURFACE WAVE SLOWLY EXIT.
OUTLOOK.
VFR IS LARGELY EXPECTED (OTHER THAN EARLY MORNING VLY FG)
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRAZIER
NEAR TERM...FRAZIER
SHORT TERM...FRAZIER
LONG TERM...FRAZIER
AVIATION...88
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