423
FXUS61 KPBZ 070719
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
319 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND OVER THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRIER WEATHER TODAY, SAVE FOR A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
---------------------------------------------------------------
DRY WEATHER (OUTSIDE OF A FEW STRAY AND VERY LIGHT POSSIBLE
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES NORTH OF I-80) IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ACROSS THE REGION. THE MENTIONED
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO H850 TEMPS OF 3-4C
ADVECTING OVER LAKE ERIE WATER TEMPS NEAR 22C. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO OBSERVED SATURDAY, AS INCREASED SUNSHINE
IS OFFSET BY COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND
- PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE
--------------------------------------------------------------
HEIGHT RISES OVERNIGHT AND INTO NEXT WEEK ARE FORECAST AS THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AXIS WEAKENS IN AMPLITUDE AND MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST, REPLACED BY MORE ZONAL FLOW. LIMITED CLOUD COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING TO TAKE
LOWS TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE WITH PATCHY
VALLEY FOG. MONDAY, MIXING WILL ALLOW WARMER (BUT STILL BELOW
AVERAGE) AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITH ONLY PATCHY
AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING MUCH OF THE SAME WITH COOL
LOWS AND VALLEY FOG, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SLIGHT INCREASE TO
DAYTIME HIGHS, BUT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. HIGH CLOUDS
MAY INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER MOISTURE BLOWS OFF FROM A
COASTAL SOUTHEAST LOW.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
------------------------------------------------------------------
THERE APPEARS TO BE A CONTINUED CONSENSUS THAT UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING DROPS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY
PERIOD, SLOWING THE WARMING TREND AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR
AVERAGE. DESPITE THE UPPER VEERING FLOW, NEAR-SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL AND MUCH OF THE AREA
DRY.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN, BUT ALL IN ALL,
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE ENSEMBLE MAX TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
SHOW ABOUT A 20 DEGREE SPREAD, BUT HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST AT THE
MEAN WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF DEWPOINT BOUNDARY MAY SPREAD
AN AREA OF IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH PATCHY FOG SOUTH OF KPIT THROUGH
14Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON NORTHWARD SPREAD, WITH HLG SEEMINGLY
ON THE EDGE OF POTENTIAL IMPACT WHILE EASTWARD PROROGATION
TOWARD MGW SEEMS MORE LIKELY.
OTHERWISE, VFR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FAVORED
AS A UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
DIURNAL HEATING AIDS SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU BETWEEN 3-6KFT.
WEAK COLD ADVECTION ALOFT AND AXIS LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS BETWEEN 18Z-00Z,
FAVORING FKL/DUJ. ADDITIONALLY, DEEPER MIXING MAY YIELD
OCCASIONAL NW WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 15-25KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORTING VFR AND LIGHT WIND
AS THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER TYPE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
VARIANCES IN THESE CONDITIONS WILL ONLY BE THE RESULT OF
LOCALIZED MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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