674
FXUS61 KPBZ 091727
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
127 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION
RETURNS BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY.
---------------------------------------------------------------
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, SO
ISOLATED RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY WARM RIVER TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION ON
AVERAGE.
DRY WEATHER AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH RISING
HEIGHTS / INCREASED THICKNESS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
- POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNING HOURS
--------------------------------------------------------------
LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS
RUNS, AND THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS AND
A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE BACK TO NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVERAGE, RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE
NIGHT WILL ALLOW LOWS TO CONSISTENTLY DROP BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD, AND HAVE BLENDED IN NBM 10TH PERCENTILE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ADDITIONALLY, PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
- TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THIS WEEKEND
------------------------------------------------------------------
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE DRY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND, AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY.
RIDGING / SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA
INCREASES PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEKEND. LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A 5-15% CHANCE OF >0.01" OF
PRECIPITATION DURING ANY 6HR PERIOD SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES NORTH OF PGH.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY FOG EARLY WED
MORNING, WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION IN RIVER VALLEYS. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT AREA TERMINALS REMAINS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT MENTION IN TAFS.
OUTLOOK.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY. A CROSSING UPPER TROUGH COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE
IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THURSDAY, THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RACKLEY
NEAR TERM...RACKLEY
SHORT TERM...RACKLEY
LONG TERM...RACKLEY/88
AVIATION...CERMAK
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