273
FXUS61 KPBZ 100517
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
117 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURE CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION
RETURNS BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY
- ISOLATED RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
---------------------------------------------------------------
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WIND EARLY THIS MORNING IS
AGAIN ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM RIVER
TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID-40S ON AVERAGE
ACROSS THE REGION, COOLER IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS,
MINIMAL CLOUD COVERAGE, AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURE SWILL RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN OBSERVED
TUESDAY, WITH MOST OF THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
- POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNING HOURS
--------------------------------------------------------------
UPPER TROUGHING WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND
CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIMITED CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LIMITED MOISTURE.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
INCREASE WARM ADVECTION AND CONTINUE THE ONGOING WARMING TREND.
BY FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE CLIMBED TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
THE LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EACH NIGHT, WITH POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING PERSIST. WITH THAT, HAVE COORDINATED WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND BLENDED IN 10TH PERCENTILE NBM GUIDANCE
TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. 10TH PERCENTILE NBM
DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO BLENDED IN THROUGH FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE OBSERVED HIGH BIAS IN TDS IN THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC SETUP.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
- TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE THIS
WEEKEND
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DRY WEATHER IS CONFIDENTLY FORECAST TO START THE WEEKEND. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN LOW-END RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT CROSS THE
REGION. ENSEMBLES ARE TRENDING TOWARDS DRIER CONDITIONS, WITH
CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT 10% OR LESS.
AREA TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WIND
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. THE CU RULE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR IN
PLACE, WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE A DIURNAL CU LAYER TODAY AS WELL.
OUTLOOK.
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THURSDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS CROSS THE REGION, THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...RACKLEY/88
AVIATION...WM
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