431
FXUS61 KPBZ 101749
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
149 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURE CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION
RETURNS BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY
- ISOLATED RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
---------------------------------------------------------------
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WIND EARLY THIS MORNING IS
AGAIN ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM RIVER
TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID-40S ON AVERAGE
ACROSS THE REGION, COOLER IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, MAINTAINING
DRY CONDITIONS, MINIMAL CLOUD COVERAGE, AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
OBSERVED TUESDAY, WITH MOST OF THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
TONIGHT, CALM WIND AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL PROVIDE OPTIMAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW
FOR PATCHY RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
- POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNING HOURS
--------------------------------------------------------------
DRY CONDITIONS ARE CONFIDENTLY FORECAST INTO SATURDAY AS BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER
TROUGHING WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY, GRADUALLY
CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE ONLY
SENSIBLE RESULT FROM THIS WILL BE A LIMITED INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE BY FRIDAY.
LIMITED CLOUD COVER SHOULD LEAD TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EACH NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING. LOWS WILL RUN IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
- WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
------------------------------------------------------------------
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARDS FROM QUEBEC ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST ENSEMBLE CYCLES HAVE
TRENDED FARTHER EAST WITH THIS FEATURE, WHICH IS LIKELY TO KEEP
MOST IF NOT ALL RAIN EAST OF OUR AREA. NBM PROBABILITIES ARE
LESS THAN 30% OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH GREATEST CHANCES NORTH
OF PITTSBURGH. REGARDLESS OF OUTCOME, ANY RAIN WE DO SEE IS
UNLIKELY TO MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE IN OUR DRY CONDITIONS.
PROBABILITIES OF 0.25" REMAIN LESS THAN 15%.
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER RIDGING IS LIKELY TO BUILD BACK OVER
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, RETURNING US TO A DRY PATTERN.
THOUGH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY RUN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN OTHER
DAYS ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE "COLD" FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AT LEAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS PUTS MOST
OF THE AREA IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND
LIGHT WIND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. LATE
TONIGHT, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL MEAN THAT THERE'S A CHANCE OF
VALLEY FOG. HAVE PUT SOME MVFR AND IFR IN THE TAF BUT THE HREF
PROBS ARE NOT PROMISING AT THIS TIME. SO DID LOWER EXPECTATIONS
WITH FOG.
OUTLOOK.
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THURSDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS CROSS THE REGION, THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RACKLEY
NEAR TERM...RACKLEY
SHORT TERM...RACKLEY
LONG TERM...RACKLEY/88
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
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