593
FXUS61 KPBZ 110541
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
141 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE, WITH ONLY MINIMAL
CHANCE FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- QUIET AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
---------------------------------------------------------------
TODAY'S TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD RIDGE OVER TH CONUS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, AND THE
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY VERY LOW (LESS
THAN 5%). RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER A CLEAR SKY MAY PROMPT
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG BETWEEN 4AM AND 6AM.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
--------------------------------------------------------------
DRY CONDITIONS ARE CONFIDENTLY FORECAST INTO SATURDAY AS BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER
TROUGHING WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY, GRADUALLY
CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE ONLY
SENSIBLE RESULT FROM THIS WILL BE A LIMITED INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE BY FRIDAY.
LIMITED CLOUD COVER SHOULD LEAD TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EACH NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING. LOWS WILL RUN IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
- WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
------------------------------------------------------------------
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARDS FROM QUEBEC ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST ENSEMBLE CYCLES HAVE
TRENDED FARTHER EAST WITH THIS FEATURE, WHICH IS LIKELY TO KEEP
MOST IF NOT ALL RAIN EAST OF OUR AREA. NBM PROBABILITIES ARE
LESS THAN 30% OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH GREATEST CHANCES NORTH
OF PITTSBURGH. REGARDLESS OF OUTCOME, ANY RAIN WE DO SEE IS
UNLIKELY TO MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE IN OUR DRY CONDITIONS.
PROBABILITIES OF 0.25" REMAIN LESS THAN 15%.
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER RIDGING IS LIKELY TO BUILD BACK OVER
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, RETURNING US TO A DRY PATTERN.
THOUGH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY RUN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN OTHER
DAYS ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE "COLD" FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AT LEAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS PUTS MOST
OF THE AREA IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A CROSSING UPPER
TROUGH ABOVE THE SURFACE HIGH COULD LEAD TO A FEW DIURNAL
CUMULUS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY, THOUGH NO RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK.
A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HEFFERAN
NEAR TERM...HEFFERAN
SHORT TERM...RACKLEY
LONG TERM...RACKLEY/88
AVIATION...WM
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