289
FXUS61 KPBZ 110712
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
312 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE, WITH ONLY MINIMAL
CHANCE FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- QUIET AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
---------------------------------------------------------------
TODAY'S TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD RIDGE OVER TH CONUS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, AND THE
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY VERY LOW (LESS
THAN 5%). RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER A CLEAR SKY MAY PROMPT
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG BETWEEN 4AM AND 6AM.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT CLEAR AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES
INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER SUNSET, TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY DIP INTO THE MID TO LOW-50S ACROSS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
--------------------------------------------------------------
THE PERSISTENT LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. DAY TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO
MID-80S; LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE IN
THE LOW TO MID-50S.
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, CLOUDS ARE FORECASTED TO INCREASE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AHEAD A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY SUNDAY
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
------------------------------------------------------------------
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, WITH DRY AIR LINGERING ALOFT, THE LIKELIHOOD OF
WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO DEVELOP WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR NORTH OF PITTSBURGH NEAR
THE TROUGH AXIS, BUT THE CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS LESS THAN 15%.
BEYOND SUNDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES STAY MINIMAL AS MANY LONG-
RANGE MODELS FAVOR RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES, SUPPORTING
WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A CROSSING UPPER
TROUGH ABOVE THE SURFACE HIGH COULD LEAD TO A FEW DIURNAL
CUMULUS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY, THOUGH NO RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK.
A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HEFFERAN
NEAR TERM...HEFFERAN
SHORT TERM...HEFFERAN
LONG TERM...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...WM
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