967
FXUS61 KPBZ 120009
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
809 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM. ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY,
BUT OTHERWISE DRY AND PLEASANT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- VALLEY FOG FRIDAY MORNING, WARM AND DRY DURING THE DAY.
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CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH RADIATIVE COOLING
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. VALLEY FOG
IS POSSIBLE YET AGAIN WITH MOISTURE FROM AREA RIVERS CLASHING
WITH COOL AIR.
FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A NICE DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER WITH SLIGHT HEIGHT
RISES. A FAIR WEATHER SCATTERED CU DECK IS AGAIN POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER.
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VALLEY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN RIVER
VALLEYS. WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL PROGRESS IN FROM THE NORTH,
ACCOMPANIED BY HEIGHT FALLS INTO SATURDAY, BUT WITH PREVALENT
SURFACE DRY AIR AND WEAK FORCING, CHANCES OF ANY RAIN SEEM LOW,
THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY. REGARDLESS, THERE
IS LITTLE TEMPERATURE UNCERTAINTY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
UPPER PATTERN (HIGHS SATURDAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL).
FOG CHANCES AND THE DEGREE OF COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
ON THE EXTENT AND DENSITY OF HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE MAY BE
ANYWHERE FROM NEAR-NORMAL WITH MINIMAL FOG TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH VALLEY FOG.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY; FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
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THE AFFILIATED SURFACE SHORTWAVE IS MOST LIKELY TO PASS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THOUGH SURFACE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PRESENT WITH WEAK FORCING. THIS WILL AGAIN KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW
WITH EVEN THE 90TH PERCENTILE 24-HR QPF SHOWING <0.25", IF ANY.
AFTER THE WAVE PASSAGE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING IS
MOST LIKELY TO RETURN WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR-TO-
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE, THROUGH IN THE 30% CHANCE THE TROUGH
SPLITS OFF INTO A COASTAL 500MB CLOSED LOW, TEMPERATURES WOULD
BE NOTABLY COOLER AND CONDITIONS CLOUDIER.
IF RIDGING PREVAILS, ITS MORE LIKELY THAT LATE-WEEK WILL SEE
CONTINUED RIDGING AND DRY, WARM CONDITIONS. BUT IN THE EVENT OF
A CLOSED EAST COAST LOW, THERE A CHANCE FOR THE LOW TO MERGE
WITH A SOUTHEAST LOW AND PERSISTS COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
WEEK WITH PROPORTIONATELY SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR AND LIGHT WIND THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
LOCALIZED RIVER VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 07Z-12Z GIVEN
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING, BUT PROBABILITY OF TERMINAL IMPACT
IS TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION.
HEADING INTO THE COMING DAY TOMORROW, THERE DOES STAND TO BE A
FEW INSTANCES OF CUMULUS BUT THE DAY WILL BE LARGELY CLEAR.
OUTLOOK.
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT AND MOSTLY DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, ANY
PRECIPITATION FAVORING NW PA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS OF VFR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, SAVE FOR
LOCALIZED RIVER VALLEY MORNING FOG.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MILCAREK
NEAR TERM...MLB/MILCAREK
SHORT TERM...MILCAREK
LONG TERM...MILCAREK
AVIATION...FRAZIER/SHALLENBERGER
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