334
FXUS61 KPBZ 120537
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
137 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
---------------------------------------------------------------
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
LIGHT WINDS, RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN ISOLATED AREAS
BETWEEN 4AM AND 6AM.
WITH DIURNAL HEATING, ANY LINGERING FOG WILL DISSOLVED AFTER
SUNRISE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- QUIET AND DRY WEATHER
--------------------------------------------------------------
EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR SYNOPTIC PATTERN TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH ADVANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST CANADA AND A RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS POSITIONED TO OUR WEST. CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY PROMPT ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH WITH THE PASSING OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO TREND ABOVE
AVERAGE BY 5 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY; FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
------------------------------------------------------------------
THE AFFILIATED SURFACE SHORTWAVE IS MOST LIKELY TO PASS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THOUGH SURFACE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PRESENT WITH WEAK FORCING. THIS WILL AGAIN KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW
WITH EVEN THE 90TH PERCENTILE 24-HR QPF SHOWING <0.25", IF ANY.
AFTER THE WAVE PASSAGE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING IS
MOST LIKELY TO RETURN WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR-TO-
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE, THROUGH IN THE 30% CHANCE THE TROUGH
SPLITS OFF INTO A COASTAL 500MB CLOSED LOW, TEMPERATURES WOULD
BE NOTABLY COOLER AND CONDITIONS CLOUDIER.
IF RIDGING PREVAILS, ITS MORE LIKELY THAT LATE-WEEK WILL SEE
CONTINUED RIDGING AND DRY, WARM CONDITIONS. BUT IN THE EVENT OF
A CLOSED EAST COAST LOW, THERE A CHANCE FOR THE LOW TO MERGE
WITH A SOUTHEAST LOW AND PERSISTS COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
WEEK WITH PROPORTIONATELY SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED ACROSS THE NE CONUS, WILL MAINTAIN VFR
AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY MORNING
RIVER VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE TAF
SITES.
OUTLOOK.
VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD BRING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HEFFERAN
NEAR TERM...HEFFERAN
SHORT TERM...HEFFERAN
LONG TERM...MILCAREK
AVIATION...WM
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