598
FXUS61 KPBZ 120736
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
336 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
---------------------------------------------------------------
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
LIGHT WINDS, RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN ISOLATED AREAS
BETWEEN 4AM AND 6AM.
WITH DIURNAL HEATING, ANY LINGERING FOG WILL DISSOLVED AFTER
SUNRISE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- QUIET AND DRY WEATHER
--------------------------------------------------------------
EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR SYNOPTIC PATTERN TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH ADVANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST CANADA AND A RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS POSITIONED TO OUR WEST. CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY PROMPT ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH WITH THE PASSING OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO TREND ABOVE
AVERAGE BY 5 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW
- MODERATE HEAT RISK IN EASTERN OHIO ON MONDAY
------------------------------------------------------------------
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND ADVANCE NORTH OF OUR REGION. WITH DESCENDING
DRY AIR IN ITS WAKE, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY FIZZLE
OUT AS IT CROSSES LAKE ERIE. PROBABILITY OF ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS CONSIDERED LESS THAN 15%. CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY
CLEAR SUNDAY MORNING AND AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE, RANGING WITHIN THE MID TO LOW-80S.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARD, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF PITTSBURGH WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER-80S ON MONDAY. THERE IS
EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR PHD TO BREAK OR TIE THEIR DAILY RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURE ON MONDAY (CURRENT RECORD: 88F, 2024).
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE PROBABILITY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
THROUGH LATE WEEK IS ABOVE 80%.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED ACROSS THE NE CONUS, WILL MAINTAIN VFR
AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY MORNING
RIVER VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE TAF
SITES.
OUTLOOK.
VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD BRING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HEFFERAN
NEAR TERM...HEFFERAN
SHORT TERM...HEFFERAN
LONG TERM...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...WM
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