329
FXUS61 KPBZ 130540
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
140 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND WARM TODAY
- SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON
---------------------------------------------------------------
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
THE NE CONUS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TRACKS SE ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION, THOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
PRECLUDE PRECIP CHANCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONTINUES
--------------------------------------------------------------
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, DUE TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE
REGION. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE
CONUS AND EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST OVER
THE WEEKEND, DRIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 500 MB
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM AROUND 582 DM ON SUNDAY,
TO 588 DM ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND, WITH HIGHS BY MONDAY AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR, TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE,
AVERAGE WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARM TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
------------------------------------------------------------------
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS
RIDGE SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. DEW POINTS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
IN THE 50S THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
AIR TEMPERATURE AND HEAT INDEX VALUES.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATER IN THE WEEK, AS ENSEMBLES INDICATE
RIDGE BEGINNING TO ERODE, AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR
THE EAST COAST. ANOTHER TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
TRACK OUT OF THE MIDWEST BY LATE WEEK. MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH LITTLE IF ANY SUPPORT FOR
RAIN EXPECTED UNDER THIS PATTERN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG
LOW.
CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE
THIS EVENING WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION IS CONSIDERED LOW (LESS THAN 10%).
CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH ADVANCING DRY
AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK.
MINUS EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HOW THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR A NUMBER OF
DAYS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...HEFFERAN
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