988
FXUS61 KPBZ 131624
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1224 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARM AND DRY
- INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON
---------------------------------------------------------------
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED IN ACROSS THE NE CONUS REACHING
DOWN INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE DRY AND CALM WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. PLENTY OF DRY AIR
IN PLACE LIKELY PRECLUDES PRECIPITATION CHANCES, ALTHOUGH A
COUPLE OF LIGHT SPRINKLES CAN'T BE RULED OUT. AN INCREASE IN
MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THIS CROSSING SHORTWAVE. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE,
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT
BEFORE MORE DRY AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND CLOUDS CLEAR QUICKLY THEREAFTER. PERSISTENCE FORECASTING
POINTS TOWARDS LOW-END FOG CHANCES IN THE RIVER VALLEYS BUT MORE
STOUT CLOUD COVER EARLY TONIGHT MAY STEM THIS MORE SO THAN
NIGHTS PRIOR.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- QUIET, DRY AND WARM WEATHER
--------------------------------------------------------------
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NE CONUS AND CONTINUES
DRY AND CALM WEATHER WITH LARGELY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THIS RIDGE THEN SLOWLY NOSES ITS WAY INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN RESPONSE, WE SEE TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE, WITH HIGHS
TRENDING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE AVERAGE. CONTINUED
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY RIVER VALLEY
FOG CHANCES, HIGHEST IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
------------------------------------------------------------------
ENSEMBLES INDICATE RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AND MIDWEST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN SEABOARD. UNDER THE RIDGE, DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN BY
LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT MOST ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND AN
ADDITIONAL 500MB TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM
CANADA. AT THIS TIME RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW AND HAVE THUS
CONTINUED OUR DRY, WARM AND QUIET CONDITIONS TO THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION AND DESCENDING AS WE
MOVE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. CLOUDS SHOULD SETTLE IN THE MID-
LEVELS BY THIS EVENING BEFORE DRY AIR INCREASES ON THE BACK SIDE
OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THESE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT.
RIVER VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN SEEMS POSSIBLE BUT LESS LIKELY THAN
PRIOR NIGHTS WITH MORE AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE TO BEGIN. IF THE
CLOUD COVERAGE LINGERS LONGER THEN FOG WOULD BE LESS LIKELY, IF
CLOUDS CLEAR EARLIER THEN THERE COULD BE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS BUT PROBABILITY OF IMPACTS TO PORTS SEEMS
LOW AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK.
EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS THE ONLY BUMP IN WHAT REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AK
NEAR TERM...AK
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...AK
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