244
FXUS61 KPBZ 140000
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
---------------------------------------------------------------
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NE CONUS, KEEPING
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES
NORTH OF I-80 AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES. DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE, ALLOWING SKIES TO
QUICKLY CLEAR THEREAFTER. PERSISTENCE FORECASTING POINTS TOWARDS
LOW-END FOG CHANCES IN THE RIVER VALLEYS, BUT MORE STOUT CLOUD
COVER EARLY TONIGHT MAY STEM THIS MORE SO THAN NIGHTS PRIOR.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- QUIET, DRY AND WARM WEATHER
--------------------------------------------------------------
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NE CONUS AND CONTINUES
DRY AND CALM WEATHER WITH LARGELY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THIS RIDGE THEN SLOWLY NOSES ITS WAY INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN RESPONSE, WE SEE TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE, WITH HIGHS
TRENDING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE AVERAGE. CONTINUED
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY RIVER VALLEY
FOG CHANCES, HIGHEST IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
------------------------------------------------------------------
ENSEMBLES INDICATE RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AND MIDWEST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN SEABOARD. UNDER THE RIDGE, DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN BY
LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT MOST ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND AN
ADDITIONAL 500MB TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM
CANADA. AT THIS TIME RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW AND HAVE THUS
CONTINUED OUR DRY, WARM AND QUIET CONDITIONS TO THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE DRY
AIR INCREASES ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT
IN THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
RIVER VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN SEEMS POSSIBLE BUT LESS LIKELY THAN
PRIOR NIGHTS WITH MORE AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE TO BEGIN. IF THE CLOUD
COVERAGE LINGERS LONGER THEN FOG WOULD BE LESS LIKELY, IF CLOUDS
CLEAR EARLIER THEN THERE COULD BE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN RIVER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. FKL HAS A TEMPO FOR SOME FOG DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
EARLIER CLEARING IN THE NORTH.
OUTLOOK.
EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING IS THE ONLY BUMP IN WHAT REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AK
NEAR TERM...RACKLEY/AK
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...LUPO/AK
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