560
FXUS61 KPBZ 141051
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
651 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND WARM TODAY
---------------------------------------------------------------
EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMPLETES ITS PASSAGE ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. PATCHY EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY
STEAM FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE CLEARING OCCURS.
OTHERWISE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO TODAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL ALSO RISE
THROUGH THE DAY AS A STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY, WITH JUST A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS POSSIBLE AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. LOWERED DEW POINTS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NBM GUIDANCE WITH MIXING DOWN OF DRY AIR TODAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY
- LOW SHOWER CHANCES RETURN FOR THE RIDGES TUESDAY NIGHT
--------------------------------------------------------------
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND THE NE CONUS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE STRONG
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.
A COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED
ACROSS THE NE CONUS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO PROGGED TO WEAKEN
AS THE LOW APPROACHES. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
COULD SPREAD A FEW SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS THE RIDGES OF PA AND
WV TUESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIMITED WITH A DRY EASTERLY FLOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH
MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS TUESDAY COULD
BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN MONDAY, AS 500MB HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO FALL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
STILL BE CLOSE TO, OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH
EFFICIENT NIGHT TIME RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
- DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK
- LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY
------------------------------------------------------------------
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY.
MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE PA AND WV RIDGES,
THROUGH A DRY, DOWNSLOPING EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE PRECIP
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED.
RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE RIDGE
IS THEN PROGGED TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY REGION THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON
WEDNESDAY, REACHING LEVELS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY
LATE WEEK AS 500MB HEIGHTS RISE.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL ADVANCE
SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES, THROUGH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH, AND THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN VFR
AND LIGHT NE WIND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY
FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z THIS MORNING AS INSOLATION INCREASES,
WITH A FEW AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPING AMID PEAK HEATING/MIXING.
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT
LIKELIHOOD OF TERMINAL IMPACT IS LOW (HIGHEST PROBABILITY
FAVORING FKL).
OUTLOOK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN, PROMOTING VFR AND LIGHT EASTERLY
WIND. CLEAR SKY NIGHTS MAY RESULT IN PATCHY RIVER FOG DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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