866
FXUS61 KPBZ 142058
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
458 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE AND DRY WEATHER IS FAVORED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE WEEK SAVE FOR LOWER PROBABILITY SHOWERS ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE TODAY
- PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG NEAR DAWN MONDAY
---------------------------------------------------------------
EXPECT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES ALOFT TO
RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND AREA TEMPERATURE TO BE ON THE
ORDER OF 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE DAILY AVERAGE. DIURNAL MIXING OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT MAY LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES THAT WOULD
INCREASE WILDFIRE RISK, BUT LIGHT SURFACE WIND WILL LIMIT
OVERALL CONCERNS.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AMID CLEAR SKIES WILL AGAIN RESULT IN
30-35 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROPS OVERNIGHT; HOWEVER, THESE VALUES
WILL STILL BE ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT PATCHY
LOCALIZED RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOP A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAWN AND
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY
- LOW SHOWER CHANCES RETURN FOR THE RIDGES TUESDAY NIGHT
--------------------------------------------------------------
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE COORDINATED WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS TO BLEND IN 10TH PERCENTILE DEWPOINTS ON
MONDAY GIVEN THE OBSERVED HIGH BIAS IN STRAIGHT NBM GUIDANCE
UNDER THIS REGIME. THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP A COASTAL LOW PARKED
NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST, BUT IT WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE
SOUTH AND EAST OF PGH AND COULD ALSO RESULT IN A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES OF PA AND WV ON TUESDAY.
HIGHS TUESDAY COULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN MONDAY,
AS 500MB HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2-4DM ON AVERAGE BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO, OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH EFFICIENT NIGHT TIME RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
- DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER ON SATURDAY
------------------------------------------------------------------
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE MENTIONED COASTAL LOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
NEAR THE PA AND WV RIDGES BUT DRY DOWNSLOPING EASTERLY FLOW
SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. AGAIN, INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE LARGELY SOUTH AND
EAST OF PGH.
RIDGING IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE AS THE COASTAL LOW
FINALLY TRANSITION NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
AREAWIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 5 AND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY TRACK TO THE
EAST THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME ONLY HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS THERE IS A FAIRLY LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH, TIMING (DUE TO THE STRONG
RIDGE OVER US AND IN IT'S PATH, AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE.
AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESULTS IN VFR
AND LIGHT NE WIND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DIURNAL CU WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG LIKELY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME, THE PROBABILITY OF VIS/CIG
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AT ANY TERMINAL IS LOW (HIGHEST PROBABILITY
FAVORING FKL).
OUTLOOK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN, PROMOTING VFR AND LIGHT EASTERLY
WIND. CLEAR SKY NIGHTS MAY RESULT IN PATCHY RIVER FOG DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRAZIER
NEAR TERM...FRAZIER
SHORT TERM...WM/88
LONG TERM...WM/88
AVIATION...34/FRAZIER
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