527
FXUS61 KPBZ 151129
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
729 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND WARM TODAY
---------------------------------------------------------------
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO, WITH A SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS
THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH A LOW ACROSS THE
SE CONUS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN
TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS
SHOULD DEVELOP, WITH SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE SE CONUS LOW. RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES
HIGHER THAN SUNDAY'S READINGS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND WARM FOR MOST OF THE AREA
- LOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE RIDGES TUESDAY NIGHT
--------------------------------------------------------------
THE LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST, REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED AS THE
LOW TRACKS NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED
ACROSS THE NE CONUS, WITH RIDGING BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
PA/WV RIDGES COULD RESULT IN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS, MAINLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT EVEN THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL.
ELSEWHERE, A LACK OF MOISTURE AND A DOWNSLOPING DRY EASTERLY
FLOW AND SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD PRECLUDE RAIN CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FEW DEGREES LOWER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS 500MB HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE REGION ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STILL BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS
EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
- PROLONGED DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY
- MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY
------------------------------------------------------------------
THE COASTAL LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON THURSDAY, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR
NORTH AND BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM AGAIN BY LATE WEEK AS 500 MB
HEIGHTS RISE WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD
AGAIN REACH LEVELS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. NIGHTTIME
LOW SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS, WITH DRY AIR AND
CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING EACH NIGHT.
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST REGION LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF, AND THE
RESULTING EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH. AT THIS TIME,
ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE TROUGH COULD APPROACH SUNDAY, WITH
MINIMAL SHOWER CHANCES RETURNING TO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OHIO, WHICH IS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS (NBM) SOLUTION.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ROOTED ACROSS THE REGION AND THE
CONTINUANCE OF VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD REMAINS HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THUS FAR THIS MORNING, RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS NOT
IMPACTED ANY PORTS. VFR CU ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR 5KFT UNDERNEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND
EASTERLY FOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
OUTLOOK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN, PROMOTING VFR AND LIGHT EASTERLY
WIND. CLEAR SKY NIGHTS MAY RESULT IN PATCHY RIVER FOG DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...AK/CERMAK
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