411
FXUS61 KPBZ 161340
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
940 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DOMINATE THE FORECAST
THIS WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. REASONABLE RAIN
CHANCES LIKELY WILL NOT RETURN UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY AT THE
EARLIEST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
- SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODERATION, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
---------------------------------------------------------------
THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THIS PATTERN MAINTAINS LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS, WITH PERIOD OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH AS THEY
WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, THOUGH WITH SOME SLIGHT MODERATION AS
HIGHS REACH THE LOW 80S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY FOR MOST OF THE REGION, SAVE FOR LOW SHOWER CHANCES IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
--------------------------------------------------------------
THE LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY CHURN NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK, REACHING THE DELMARVA
REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION WEST OF THE PA/WV RIDGES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WAVES OF
HIGH CLOUD SPINNING IN FROM THE EAST, AS RIDGING REMAINS IN
CONTROL OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
ALONG EAST-FACING SLOPES, ENOUGH ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BE REALIZED TO ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS, WITH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY STILL THE MOST FAVORED
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY, ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE VERY LIGHT
AND DO LITTLE TO THE DEVELOPING DROUGHT OVER THE REGION.
DOWNSLOPING TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGES WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS
PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH LOWLAND
AREAS REMAINING DRY THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY (ABOVE-
AVERAGE), WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS REMAIN CLOSER TO AVERAGE THANKS
TO THE DRY AIR AND EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
- PROLONGED DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY
- MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
------------------------------------------------------------------
BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE COASTAL LOW OPENS UP INTO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT SLOWLY EDGES OUT TO SEA WITH TIME. MEANWHILE, THE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE ALSO SHIFTS EASTWARD ACCORDINGLY, WITH THE AXIS OVER THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAY DROP SOUTH INTO OUR REGION ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
APPROACHING RIDGE, BUT ANY SUCH PASSAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
THREATEN THE OVERALL DRY REGIME THROUGH SATURDAY.
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS RISING, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
RISE TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK
WEEK. IN CONTRAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
SEASONABLE WITH THE DRY AIR AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OPPORTUNITIES.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL
CLUSTERS REGARDING THE PATTERN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE BIG QUESTION MARK IS HOW AN EAST COAST RIDGE HANDLES
THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. IF THE RIDGE HOLDS FIRM, WE'D CONTINUE
TO SEE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY AS
THE UPSTREAM TROUGH (AND ANY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION)
WOULD BE SHUNTED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. HOWEVER, SOME
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE RIDGE GIVES WAY AND PUSHES TO THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST, ALLOWING SOME SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. IF THIS LATTER SCENARIO VERIFIES, IT WOULD
BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA, WHICH WOULD BE WELCOME AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE
DEVELOPING DROUGHT. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST INCLUDES A SLOW
INCREASE IN LOW RAIN CHANCES AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST,
ALONG WITH A MODEST TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, THOUGH GENERALLY EASTERLY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN 7-10KFT. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE
PREVALENT TODAY FILTERING IN FROM A COASTAL SYSTEM NEAR SE
VIRGINIA.
MORE NOTABLE HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE MAY KEEP THE LID ON FOG
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT, BUT BREAKS IN THIS MAY ALLOW FOR LOW END
FOG POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY FOR FKL.
OUTLOOK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN, PROMOTING VFR AND LIGHT EASTERLY WIND. CLEAR SKY
NIGHTS MAY RESULT IN PATCHY RIVER FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CERMAK/CL
NEAR TERM...CERMAK/CL
SHORT TERM...CERMAK/CL
LONG TERM...CERMAK/CL
AVIATION...AK/RACKLEY
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