049
FXUS61 KPBZ 021141
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
741 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TODAY
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DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND REMAINS THE DOMINANT FORECAST
FEATURE. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL AGAIN OFFER LITTLE
WARM OR MOISTURE ADVECTION RESULTING IN A PRETTY SIMILAR DAY TO
WEDNESDAY WITH CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD. OUR 12Z SOUNDING IS VERY
DRY WITH A RAPIDLY DECREASING DEW POINT PROFILE UP TO 800 MB.
MIXING AND DOWNSLOPING OFF OF THE RIDGES SUGGESTS ANOTHER DAY
WITH NOTABLE DEW POINT DROPS THIS AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 20-30% RANGE.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH A WARMING TREND.
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THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A LARGE EASTERN CONUS RIDGE
MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES. BY SATURDAY, ON AVERAGE, DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DURING THE NIGHT. WITH THAT, HAVE
USED A 50/50 BLEND OF NBM AND NBM10TH PERCENTILE THOUGH THE
WEEKEND FOR MINTS AND TDS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
- LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND RAIN THEREAFTER.
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LATEST LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS POINTS TOWARDS UNCERTAINTY IN NEXT
WEEK LARGELY BASED ON THE DEPTH/STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH
TRANSITIONING IN FROM CANADA, SO A RELATIVELY LARGE SPREAD IN
ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK MAKES SENSE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST SITS CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS, WHICH ARE NEAR NORMAL
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THE
MENTIONED TROUGH TO IMPACT THE REGION WITH INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND LOWERING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMS.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NE CONUS. EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
PERSIST AT AROUND 5KT AS SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS
THE REGION ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
OUTLOOK.
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED
ACROSS THE NE CONUS. THE EXCEPTION IS WHEN A CHANCE OF LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG RETURNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS DEW POINTS RISE AND WIND BECOMES CALM.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...MLB
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...WM/MLB
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